Objective Article on 'Who is likely to win'
I actually did this post in another forum originally ages ago, so I'm going to post it here in this topic for you. Basically its a ranking system of who in my opinion I believe would be likely to 'come out on top', with reasons why. This is obviously a fluff-based analysis (not tabletop).
1/ Tyranids - Pretty much self explanitory. Probably everyones favourite to win, being the merciless unbargainable organism that is unstoppable and blah blah blah. Their trump card is their eating their foes and their worlds, and therefore allowing no resistance in the aftermath of victory.
=1/ Necrons - Have a similiar approach to Tyranids, and have the most ancient powerful technology. Another important factor is that they are the anti-thesis to the Tyranids, and so are most likely to be able to withstand them. After all, theres nothing to eat, Necrons don't need an atmosphere, their tombworlds are rocks anyway. The other thing to consider is the C'tan gods, who at work allow the Necrons an advantage over any faction.
3/ The Imperium - Many will be surprised with the inclusion of the Imperium here. However there is a real possibility of Imperial Victory. Remember that the Imperium is "the largest most powerful empire the galaxy has ever seen" (yes that is a quotation) and that this includes all the myriad forces of the Imperial War machine, the IG, the marine chapters, the forces of the inquisiton, the navy and the various other organisations I havent time to include. Of course in it's present state the Imperium is weakened, but suppose we considered the possibility of the Emperor waking up? The Imperium of the Great Crusade would have sweft away any of the current factions (pre-heresy), and so we must imagine the possibility of the Emperor waking up and the Great Crusade being renewed.
4/ Chaos - Chaos is eternal after all. Chaos has the advantage of being unable to be eradicated completely without the death of every living being. While many factions may be able to carry this out, only a Necron victory presents this possibility. If chaos ever managed to truly breach the Cadian Gate (and no it hasn't happened yet, the Imperial Navy controls the space lanes again and the counter-offensive is underway) it stands a real chance of over-running much of the galaxy.
5/ Eldar - They may be a dying race, but they are far from being ruled out. An Eldar resurgence would mean a serious attempt to form an empire again. The Eldar do have a plan to regain their dominance and, if under the leadership of the Harlequins they succeed in destroying Slanneesh, they would stand an excellent chance of re-establishing some semblance of an empire. And the resurrection of something like the Eldar empire of old would be a truly formidable thing to stop.
6/ Orks - Many will be surprised at the relatively low rating I give the Orks. I acknowledge the Ork strengths, their sheer numbers and how they would over-run all other factions if they united. And yes their spore dispersal system means victory against Orks is a mute point until you kill the spores. However I have several arguements I'd point out for the unlikelihood of Ork victory. Firstly - Orks will leave a planet in peace is tribute is levied. This is stated in the Ork fluff, they will happily leave a system in perfect order if tribute is provided. Secondly - they don't kill everyone needlessly. Orks quite happily have worlds in thrall, slaves and pets. Leaving worlds full of your enemies under control always allows the possibility of survival (and possible rebellion). And thirdly - they haven't already. Orks have been around for thousands of years longer than the Imperium, and their signals stretch to areas the Imperium has not explored. Have they in this time come close to uniting about a single banner and toppling the Imperium? If I remember right the largest Waagh on record was the battle 3rd battle for Armageddon for a single planet, and although fighting rages the largest Waagh has not even captured this one planet. So in short, although the possibility of the Orks uniting would mean their victory, it is sufficiently unlikely for me to put the Orks here.
7/ Tau - The new guys. The Tau have a lot of possibility about them, and are a match one for one for any faction. The problem is in fluff terms there is no 'points' and battles are not fought one for one. The only reason the Tau are expanding like they are is that none of the other factions consider them important enough to devote enough attention to them. While this means currently things look good for the Tau and their rapid expansion, can it be predicted how things would look when they become dangerous enough for anyone to devote a real attack on them? The Damocles crusade was the nearest thing to one, and that was reportedly given vastly far too few resources for the objectives set for it. Simply put they didnt know who the Tau were, where they were and what they were facing. However if a real possibility of new attack was launched by a faction, informed this time about the Tau positions and technologies, and with more resources sufficient to the task (and not called off due to the Tyranids), the real test of Tau expansion would be.
8/ Dark Eldar - Predictably and sadly the Dark Eldar go last. I have a great respect for the DE and their players, so please don't mistake this for some 'dig' at the DE, it's just that they truly are the least likely. The foremost reason against Dark Eldar dominance of the galaxy is simply that it is not in their nature. They rely on slave raids from their hidden base, not holding any territory. This is hardly conducive to taking over the galaxy. While this means they probably won't be destroyed either, unless their is a dramatic change in tactics they are unlikely to 'win'. Also they have no real plan to beat Slanneesh, other than torturing as much as possible to stave of Slanneesh's thirsts.
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