Best chance against AV14 (MathCraft)

[chrono10]

Bored at work and what to do but plug numbers to see what has the best chance of hurting our toughest opponents.

I am not sure if my math was all correct so i posted it to help ya sort it all out. Otherwise the % at the front should be most usefull. (Note Zoanthrope is realitivly high in % but only has one chance where a tyrant has lower % but multiple attacks)

% chance to glance AV14 (Assuming (4+ or 50%)to hit a vehicle that moved)

45.83% per Attack - S10 CC Carnifex - (50% hit)*(11/12 or 91.67)(chance to get a total of 4 or more on 2 dice)
25% per shot - S10 Carnifex + BS (venom cannon) - (50% hit)*(1/2)(to get 4, 5 or 6)
22.91% - S10 Zoanthrope (warp blast) - (11/12 or 91.66% power up)*(1/2) to hit*(1/2) to glance
20.83% per Attack - S6 CC Tyrant - (50% hit)*(5/12 or 41.67%) 8+ on 2 dice
11.11% per shot - S6 Tyrant + BS (venom Cannon) - (2/3 to hit) *(1/6)
5.55% per Attack - S6 Broodlord/Lictor (rends only) - (50% hit)*(1/6 rends)*(2/3)
5.55% - S9 Carnifex (barbed strangler) - (1/3 counting hit on scatter die only)*(1/6) (S8+6 to glance)
2.77% Per Attack - S5 Genestealer / Tyrant Guard (rends only) - (50% hit)*(1/6 rends)*(1/3)
2.77% - Bio Acid Spore Mine (1/3 counting hit on scatter die only) * (1/12 or 8.33% roll 11 or 12 on two dice)

Some of the die calculations were done with a program called smallroller look it up on Yahoo! (http://www.yahoo.com) if you wanta use it for calculations.

Also this was only glance, afterwards i thought it would probally be more usefull to have Penetrations instead.

Anyother Thoughts on this. Usefull or not? Nothing Spectacular we know Fexes and tyrants kill tanks, but now you know the % a genestealer or sporemine can kill AV14 so to get that % up throw more people at it!

[Phalanx]

It'd be more useful to see the average and what the 50% zone is or see the odds of getting at least 1 glance with a full complement of shots/attacks. By showing the odds for a single shot some people will just find the averages, but those aren't quite that useful because there might be a large variance and so may not be that helpful at all.

[Zarachius]

Well, I myself am not sure what to say about those numbers. Best never to rely on the math (believe me, the math fails me every day). But that's not to say anyone should ignore those numbers either. I think you've done a pretty good service here, and thanks for mentioning that smallroller program. Using it to calculate Space Hulk and Perils of Warp / Miscasts right now.

Really not a surprise the CC 'fex has the highest chance per hit.

[Zarathustra]

I enjoy the math side of warhammer (Its Math-hammer, not mathcraft!), but I have seen too often the dice not follow a proper random distribution.

Especially annoying when my stealers' 20 hits over 3 rounds dont rend. Which, btw, only has 2.6% chance of happening..

[chrono10]

Haha ya i did see that after i posted but apparently i cant edit the title.

Ya i definatly agree with that I just think that the raw numbers might be usefull if you have to make a split second decision of what to attack with what. EX: a dakka fex in melee or 20 stealers to break a tank.. 2 attacks that can do some big damage or alota attacks that might scrach something eventually..

[winginson]

Ofcourse as with all probabilties rolling 20 dice is open to much variation and devience from what is expected. Roll 1000 dice and you will get far closer to the expected.