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Ok, been making a list for my Night Lords legion (the only army I have which is fully painted...) and I have encountered a problem of sorts. I can't make my list Night Lordy with 3 troops choices. I don't feel safe in 5th by taking 2. It's too vulnerable. And I fully expect guard to be packing 3 battlecannons, and tyranids having a flyrant, and daemons bloodletters/nettes and suchlike to maul my troops. So, list composition for my Night Lords. It tends to revolve around running circles round the enemy and having units Deep Strike from nowhere and such. So, the units I like to use:
Basic Chaos Marines
All (not spawn)
So, while making my list the first thing I add are two 230 point units of CSM (10 men, 2 plas, champ w/fist and IoCG) and their transports. Then my HQ which is for now, an Undivided prince with Warptime. I am debating lash for a "misdirection" type thing. But back on topic. Then I add raptors (almost mandatory for the Night Lords). And a pair of las/AC preds. From there I only have about 500 pts. So the extra troops is almost impossible.
You could take out one of your heavy choices out maybe a predator with las. and add a chaos marine troops choice. tanks are way harder to destroy and could easily be ignored so troops are a must. and you could just destroy their own troops and ignore the tanks so your predator is not so necessary. In 5th edition you need lots of infantry to survive the fight and take the objectives.
Traitors dine in heLL.
Surely 500 points is enough for two more squads? Four squads run you about 1000 points, then your Prince and two Predators would about fill it out.
As a Night Lord Player myself, I hate to say it but you should consider shelving Raptors for now. Ten CSMs with a Rhino are 15 points cheaper than 10 Raptors, and now that the new edition both makes Raptors non-scoring and forces them to take terrain tests on takeoff as well as landing, well, they are hard to justify these days.
One fluffy unit I have been considering is a squad of 10 Chosen with four power weapons. Use them to flank in from the side and disrupt an enemy objective, and generally to hunt down the enemy's troops units. I think they have krak grenades also, so they can tankhunt, too; meltabombs get expensive but are available. 10 Chosen, 4 p.swords comes to 240 points; maybe add a mark and, while they're expensive, they'll certainly take some heat off the troops you bring...and maybe your opponent will forget they're lurking.
You could try 2 CSM squads and two Fury Squads.
You could use 6-man squads with an Icon and bring plenty of Furies and Termies. Bolters are not to be underestimated. You could drop plasma guns; they aren't so effective with all the cover saves I've been seeing lately. Sneak some powerfists in as points allow.
I typically bring 3 troops, and while that used to be enough I agree with you that attrition rates from true LOS make 3 a bare minimum now. I would love to stay loyal to NL fluff but it's becoming a serious handicap; I might make my CSMs count as Plague Marines until the next Codex.
Anyway, best of luck. I'm still adjusting to 5e myself.
"My tanks have names, my men have numbers." -Col. Edmund Grahvess, 23rd Kronecker Prison Guard