Deepstrike stat candy for math nerds. - Warhammer 40K Fantasy
 

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  1. #1
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    Deepstrike stat candy for math nerds.

    Here you go boys, deep strike statistics and why if you wanna use meltas on a tank it is a good idea to DS RIGHT next to them.


    Best part of the new DS rules, 1/3 of the time when you get unlucky and roll that 16.67 chance, and the dice arrow gods point you in the wrong direction you are still ok!

    Let's take a 180 degree arc of doom and assume that the arrow dice are perfectly random, 16.67% chance of 2-4 inches which when the arrow gods point you at that tank you landed DS'd next to(in the hopes of melta guns going off)

    Well, we can take that 16.67 chance and cut it in half, so now we have a 8.335 % chance to land on that tank, but wait! 1/3 of the time we get a do-over and come back next turn! so that gives us a 5.55% chance of F'ing up a deep strike

    (assuming no other variables, ie other units board edge etc.)




    Last edited by snarl of disgust; January 19th, 2009 at 23:47.

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  3. #2
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    Including the 33% chance not to scatter:
    51% the time you will scatter under 5 inches, and 37% of the time you will scatter 6-9 inches. Your chance of scattering 10 or more inches is 11%

    You can adjust your DS so the ark of scattering onto the vehicle is minimised - this happens when you are furthest from the vehicle, but meltas kind of force you to be within 6 inches, so you don't want to scatter out the other way either

    I usually atempt DS to about 2-3 inches from a target. This way I can go back a bit, and plenty to the sides, but not really towards the vehicle unless I giantscatter over the vehicle.

    However, the enemy will usually have more than one vehicle. During those times I try inbetween if they are suitably apart.

    I love the risks, I love DS, what can I say.
    Be nice to your enemies, it will make them madder!

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    Quote Originally Posted by recoman3 View Post
    Including the 33% chance not to scatter:
    51% the time you will scatter under 5 inches, and 37% of the time you will scatter 6-9 inches. Your chance of scattering 10 or more inches is 11%
    DS is a lot of fun!, how did you get those numbers..they don't appear to be accurate (my math could be off, just trying to figure out as mine contradict yours)

  5. #4
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    I assumed the odds you gave were dice odds (0.166 for 7, 0.1389 for 6 and 8 etc). I multiplied this by 2/3 to represent the times where there is scatter. So instead of scattering 7inches 16% of the time you scatter, I said you scatter 7inches 11% of the "total" time.

    So in my calculation, under 5" = 0-5" rather than 2-5"


    You know, we can work our way into a value analysis. (Note, the following numbers are hypothetical to make explanation easier)

    Say you DS termies, and they have 75% chance to land behind a tank worth 150pts, if your chance of bad scatter is, say, 25%, the deepstrike is worth 150*0.75=112.5pts. From this you have to subtract your chance of not killing the tank (if it is 95% chance to kill, multiply this by 0.95). Lets assume 100% kill.

    So now, assuming that there is nothing else around to blow up, the termies you deepstrike has to be worth at most 112 points.

    If there are two tanks, near each other, you say (150*odds of killing)*0.75+(150*odds of killing)*0.75=X. So we can say, odds of killing the first are 1 (100%) but during the other player's turn the other tank kills two termies and the odds of killing the tank fall to 50% so you would use 0.5. 150*0.75+150*0.5*0.75=168.75. Assume the remaining termies are killed by the explosion and are worth 0.

    So if you play by pure odds with the above scenario you will only deepstrike the karmoon special (around 150-160 pts) with combi meltas behind two tanks worth a total of 300pts or more.

    For those who don't know, a common poker strategy (among advanced players) is to go purely off odds as, in the long run, if you make the right decisions your average will be positive returns. Perhaps, in this game, you can play it such way. The DS for the termies may sometimes stuff-up, but you are playing the odds, and in the long run, over hundreds of games, you will win because based on odds it is the right decision.

    Dunno if this is much comfort to those who don't like DS, but hey =)

    *editted some bad grammar*
    Be nice to your enemies, it will make them madder!

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    Another interesting tactic which i think is legal rules wise is to initally place your model over the unit you want to tattck on the ds. Since you have better odds of scattering this can work out farely well.

  7. #6
    Senior Member Thyr's Avatar
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    I'm not a math nerd so I'll assume everything you've said is right.

    If I read what you said correctly this means that the best unit I could get for a Deep Strike strategy is a unit of 5 Raptors with 2 Meltaguns for 120 pts positioned 2-3" away from it's target. That way, I maximize my chances to blow up ~150 pts worth of tanks in the turn they deep strike.

    So basically it means that such a unit would be worth its points even if it dies the turn after they deep striked, especially if this strategy can be performed against a much more valuable target (a Land Raider for exemple). It would also be a viable strategy to blow up Baneblades in Apocalypse games with 2 or 3 cheap squads (360 pts could blow up a 500 pts tank in a turn).

    Also, since the Raptors have a great mobility they would be the perfect unit to follow up on some other targets after their initial appearance therefore killing a lot more than their point worth (if they survive since they are not as tough as a Terminator). That would make such a unit a major pain for the opponent, especally if 2 of them appear in the same turn.

    Tanks a lot for those pointers, since the 5th edition came out those AV14 tanks have been a pain to blow up. This alternative might just do the trick, I'll try it out as soon as possible.
    Last edited by Thyr; January 21st, 2009 at 22:56. Reason: Grammar corrections

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    Thyr, note that my numbers were hypothetical, and I gave a 100% chance to kill the vehicle - so you have to discount this.
    But like you said, in the game you also have to add the points from all the other stuff they can do.

    I generally don't hesitate to DS behind vehicles, especially if there is quite a small amount of terrain/troops to land on (battlefields seem to be more barren around the edges, good advantage) and plenty of targets to follow on to.
    Be nice to your enemies, it will make them madder!

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    nono on the DS raptors, they will average 1.222 hits. WIth melta weapons under 6inches they will most certainly pen each pen hit only has a 50% chance of destroying the vehicle. To ensure destruction with meltas you need at least two pen hits to average a kaboom.


    Go termies for 40 points more you can have a karmoon special with meltas which average 2.6666 hits and a chainfist. At the very least they will stun the tank then you just run up with the chainfist champion and destroy it.

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    Pirate Chaos Space Marine Mechatius's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snarl of disgust View Post
    each pen hit only has a 50% chance of destroying the vehicle.
    If I'm not mistaken a pen hit from a meltagun would have a 2/3 chance due to their low AP value.

    Quote Originally Posted by snarl of disgust View Post
    At the very least they will stun the tank then you just run up with the chainfist champion and destroy it.
    Of course, you have to wait for your next turn before you do any chainfisting, which makes it less likely to happen.

    I actually liked the 5 man DSing raptors idea. Not every piece of armor has a 14 rear AV. Even if you chance upon the side, there's a pretty big chance that the AV is 12 or below.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mechatius View Post
    If I'm not mistaken a pen hit from a meltagun would have a 2/3 chance due to their low AP value.
    I think that is taking into account the low AP value. on a normal roll 5 or 6 destroys the vehicle, so with AP1 4, 5 or 6 does.



    Quote Originally Posted by Mechatius View Post
    Of course, you have to wait for your next turn before you do any chainfisting, which makes it less likely to happen.

    I actually liked the 5 man DSing raptors idea. Not every piece of armor has a 14 rear AV. Even if you chance upon the side, there's a pretty big chance that the AV is 12 or below.
    Aye, personally though, due to the ability to summon the terminators on an icon, thus removing scatter, I would personally prefer the terminators.
    Rork: In the dark future of the 41st millennium there is only friendship.
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