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I figure I didn't want to keep hijacking the other thread to talk about why my fellow Sisters players should mech up. So I started a new thread. Where we can beat each other up and down until we all agree to disagree.
Anyway, we have had the debate about competitive vs. fluffy players. Some people think that you can't be fluffy and competitive or that they have no business being in the same tournament.. Well, that is for another thread (someone else start that one). Some say that it is the competitive players that are mech'ing up. Hopefully, we'll talk about why EVERYONE should do it to win games in 5th edition.
Because, even the fluffy players will agree, it is more fun to win than to lose.
Aight on with the show. We started down the path in the other thread about how mech provides mobility. I don't want to focus on that. But we will get to it. I want to talk about how mech makes your army more survivable. And to do that, I am going to borrow, even though I could do all the math myself I am lazy, a good argument from Stelek.
Now some people hate him. Some people love him. I am not here to pass judgment on him, but I think the math doesn't lie in this thread.Hopefully that gets the ball rolling. I'll try to make my own comments from now on.We'll assume a 4+ cover save (easily gained for infantry, gainable for MC's and vehicles if not as easy or universal). We're also assuming nobody has +1 to cover saves (for any reason). The vast majority of units don't.
We'll assume a lascannon is being shot for purposes of this example. It's relatively dangerous (inflicts ID to many models), bypasses FNP, has a very long range, and beats all armor saves in the game. It also wounds every model (except Wraithlords and C'Tan) on a 2+.
So, it's pretty good, yes? It can only affect a single target, but that target is in trouble if it hits.
Now, let's talk about probabilities.
To hit once with BS3, you need two Lascannon shots.
To hit twice with BS3, you need four Lascannon shots.
Already, we're at a rather high number of Lascannons for, well, many armies.
Obviously, BS4 will hit more often. We all know that.
That isn't the point, though many people think it is.
What the point actually is, is survivability.
We'll take those two Lascannon shots at BS3, and apply it to infantry.
They have a 4+ cover save.
They are also wounded on a 2+.
So, on average--there is a single hit, and it wounds 83.3% of the time (that 2+ to wound).
Cut that in half (because of your 4+ cover save) and you end up dying 41.65% of the time.
There are no further saves. Necrons being the most obvious exception, but for this example we'll ignore them.
Now, let's apply this same concept to a rather cheap vehicle, the Rhino. Worth approximately 2 Space Marines.
Two lascannon shots, one hit.
Now unfortunately for you, the Rhino has THREE saves before you can destroy it.
First, the armor penetration roll.
16.66% of the time, the Lascannon shot is stopped completely.
16.66% of the time, the Lascannon shot hurts but is unlikely to do any serious damage. I'll catch up with this later.
66.66% of the time, the Lascannon shot 'wounds' the vehicle.
Now apply cover, the 4+ kind.
Wait, does that mean only 33.33% of the time a Lascannon hurts? Well, obviously it could not have cover but the point is--good players will find cover against heavy weapons fire, because they KNOW this.
Now the final save, the semi-invulnerable save...the roll on the damage table.
Everyone realizes this is essentially a 3+ semi-invulnerable, right? AP1 weapons modify the semi-invulnerable save by 1, and open-topped also modifies this roll (so it can become a 4+ or 5+). Skimmers going flat out, and squadrons, also effectively modify the semi-invulnerable save (by making the vehicle get destroyed on immobilization results). Flat-out, open-topped skimmers in a squadron (currently only Piranhas) can completely negate their own semi-invulnerable save if hit by AP1 weaponry. Good times!
See, it does hurt to lose weapons, be stunned, or become immobilized...but in the end, the vehicle isn't dead, is it now? We all understand some vehicles that become weaponless or immobilized are far less dangerous (Vindicators, Dreadnoughts) but it's not dead and that's the point here.
So, back to math for a minute.
If I have a 3+ semi-invulnerable save (5-6, you die...it's just reversing the numbers folks, get with the program), doesn't that mean I do not die 66% of the time?
So the 33.33% chance to kill my vehicle model, is reduced further to 11.11%?
Of course, being damaged sucks--worse for some vehicles (Vindicators, Dreads needing to CC, Land Raiders being Immobilized) and is rather meh/so what for most of the rest.
So how many shots does it take to kill even a lowly Rhino?
With 2 shots required per 1 hit, and the chance to kill around 11%...well, you will likely attrition through the semi-invulnerable save long before 20 shots would be required. 5-10 isn't unusual, however.
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I actually blogged about light armor saturation recently, revisiting the topic now 5th ed's sunk in a bit better.
So Many Targets, so few shots... revisited
given the short range shooting of Sisters, and the durability of rides, mixed with being able to apply my forces right where I want to... makes Mech a no-brainer.
even though people claim 4+ cover saves are plentiful, a decent Eldar army... or even IG army can throw enough str6+ shots at you to choke a fish.
check out Farmpunk's blog:
the Back 40k
Ive stopped meching sister squads in rhinos because mechanizing sisters just relies on hoping your opponent can't take out your rhinos early. even if you have 5 or 6 rhino squads, half the time the opponent get first turn and pops 2 or 3 which makes them useless for most of the game. Playing mech sisters pretty much forces you to play aggressive every single game, and any army thats more maneuverable then yours can stay untouched the whole game meanwhile most armies have enough strength 6 or 8 firepower to take down your army. Plus mechanized gets destroyed in kill points as you have 6 or 7 free easy kill points on the board.
I dont think that foot slogging sisters is a fluffy but bad army i think they're more competitive
Its ethier the choice to go to the enemy or stay in a defended position and get blasted away by long range weapons which alot of armies have. This is one of the reason GW is thinking of combining GK and WH in next codex.
Space marines 6 dread army Wins: 4 ties:2 Loses:7 Modified Standard nilla marines Wins:37 Ties:8 Loses 42 Daemonhunters Wins:3 Ties:0 Loses:1 Full assualt concept army wins: 6 Ties: none Loses: 2
They are probably equally good/bad however you want to see it, as sitting back and defending a position as SoB.
Sure we can add in Inqs as firebases, but the SoB version is just plain bad, and the DH one is expensive points wise.
Regarding fluff - the sisters are one of the few forces that have compulsory transport choices for a unit, all but one of their vehicle options is a transport, every apoc formation available for sisters is mechanized, and at the end of the day they aren't tireless superhuman warriors - they have those rhinos for a reason.
Actually, I think all of this is a strong argument for something else entirely. It's an argument for medium-strength multi-shot weapons. Why? Well, with "everyone" meching up, we've created a target-rich environment for S6+ weapons. Given the relatively low AV of most transports, more shots is, per mathhammer, more advantageous than higher strength shots...that eliminates krak missiles and lascannons from consideration. S5 is really too low to be a realistically effective weapon against AV11, and when transport-hunting, you have to plan to take on AV11 and 12. That really just leaves autocannons and multilasers...to which sisters have little access. We do have exorcists, but transports don't come in squadrons, so even if we cheese up with three exorcists, we're talking a maximum of three transports per turn that can be engaged with a random number of missiles. Unreliable.
Back to the autocannons and multilasers. These are also ideal weapons for engaging troops in cover...given that tall grass now constitutes a 4+ cover save, and this cover save is virtually everywhere, we have to focus more on defeating cover saves than we do on defeating armor saves. Even when shooting at power armor. While knocking a 3+ armor save down to a 4+ cover save sounds good when taken out of context, how many wounds are we causing with the AP3 weapon in the first place? In many cases, you're better off shooting marines in cover with a multilaser than with a plasma gun, and forget comparing a melta to a multilaser in that situation...
So, given the "my model is on the board, therefore it gets a 4+ cover save" environment, in combination with the new vehicle damage tables, volume of fire now trumps strength of fire, provided that the strength is just strong enough to pen on 5-6 or wounds on 2+. Against transports and infantry, S6-7 multishot weapons (as mentioned, those are multilasers and autocannons) meet the test. Sisters don't field too many of those...which is the single greatest reason to induct guard. Under the old guard codex, I fielded two armored fist squads for this purpose...giving the chimeras multilasers and the squads autocannons. Oh, of course I also took advantage of the ability to throw in a russ for good measure Now I'm "forced" to take veteran squads in lieu of armored fists...but the chimeras are cheaper to offset the higher cost of the vets, so I effectively get a BS4 upgrade for free...
IG since 1999 __ DA since 2002 __ Tau since 2005 __ SoB since 2007
Brets 1997-1999 __ TK since 2009 __ Empire since 2010
Well crafted post.
Now, if I am hearing you correctly, we as WH players only have one option. Take guard to fill in our shooting.
If we run pure sisters, we are going to have to play very aggressively to get across the board. Either with the mech or on foot, we still have to be very aggressive.
If we want to sit back and shoot, we are going to need the help of guard to pop those rides that are coming down on us. At that point why are we even playing a WH army?
This is why I play the rhino-rush style army. Get me across the board as fast as I can with as many rhinos as I can. It removes the opponents ability to tackle all of the rides. Thus almost guanteeing that I will make it to the other side.
We are in desperate need of a revamp. Put us with the GKs I don't really care, we are still going to be one of the least played armies out there.
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omg why am i double posting all the time.
Aggies for 40k - PM me for details.