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since I couldn't find it anywhere on the net, I just did a bit of number crunching myself (ok, MatLab did it...°°). Listed are the chances to penetrate a vehicle with AVxx and score a Wrecked/Explodes result on the damage table with one salvo.
AV10: 57.51 %
AV11: 48.13 %
AV12: 36.74 %
AV13: 22.95 %
AV14: 6.29 %
IG HW Squad with 3 Autocannons (6 shots)
AV10: 40.67 %
AV11: 29.03 %
AV12: 15.55 %
AV13: 0 %
AV14: 0 %
2x IG HW Squad with 3 Autocannons (12 shots)
AV10: 64.80 %
AV11: 49.64 %
AV12: 28.68 %
AV13: 0 %
AV14: 0 %
Devs with 4 Missile Launchers (no BF boost)
AV10: 47.34 %
AV11: 37.57 %
AV12: 26.50 %
AV13: 14.01 %
AV14: 0 %
That's it. I just liked to share with you, for those who like to play it by the numbers.
Relying on 3.5 Exorcist missles launched per salvo, yes.
5th Sisters of Battle: 10-5-12 (W-L-T)
So whenever you shoot with your Exo at AV11, you get a 48.13 % chance to destroy it.
Recently, there was a good article somewhere on a blog about Warhammer players confusing their "average values" with flat probability. The latter takes a bit more effort, but can sometimes yield surprising results.
It'd be interesting to see how the moving/stationary triple lascannon pred compares as it's the vehicle I consider to be the vanilla marine equivalent of the exorcist.
Interesting...the kill probability looks low for AV11, but I guess I'm just thinking of the exorcist's performance against a ravager ('nother +1 for being open topped increases the kill rate dramatically, especially in cases where getting immobilized is a death sentence, too!)
I also just noticed that that's the probability of getting a 5 or a 6 out of a penetrating hit...since AP1 makes it possible to get a 5 on a glance...I'd say the true kill rate is a bit higher across the board. At a 1/36 chance per missile (getting exactly the roll needed to glance, then getting a 6), that's around a 10% higher kill rate for each AV...bumping AV10 to near 70% isn't that huge, but bumping AV14 from 6% to around 16% is nearly three times the kill rate!
Wait a minute...Exorcist missiles can only glance AV14 in the first place....so you were including glancing hits, even though your writeup says penetrating hits? Anyway, with a 1/36 chance per missile...6% seems a bit low for AV14.
Last edited by Marnepup; March 15th, 2011 at 21:38.
IG since 1999 __ DA since 2002 __ Tau since 2005 __ SoB since 2007
Brets 1997-1999 __ TK since 2009 __ Empire since 2010
AV10: 18.52 %
AV11: 14.81 %
AV12: 11.11 %
AV13: 7.41 %
AV14: 3.70 %
TL Lascannon (BF4)
AV10: 24.69 %
AV11: 19.75 %
AV12: 14.81 %
AV13: 9.88 %
AV14: 4.94 %
Predator with TL LC + 2 LC (BF4)
AV10: 50.00 %
AV11: 41.76 %
AV12: 32.69 %
AV13: 22.74 %
AV14: 11.84 %
I'd say, some food for thought.
Sorry, I did not write it clearly. With penetrating hit I mean achieving a roll on the damage chart, be it at -2 or not. English is not my native tongue.
The figures should be correct, but don't take my word for it. I just made this last night for fun since I couldn't sleep.
Exorcist vs. AV 14
Chance to destroy, 1 missile:
p = 2/3 * 1/6 * 1/6 = 1.85 %
p_total = 1 - 1/6 * [(1-p) + (1-p)^2 + ... + (1-p)^6) = 6.29 %
Open topped + destroying on Immobilize + AP1 result up the probabilities tremendously, more so than higher Str or anything.
Does that seem correct?
Last edited by mossflower; March 15th, 2011 at 22:05.
With some kind of reserve manipulation available, the Exorcist would be ideal.
If someone helps you, rep them.
In a votewar you don't vote on a single match, you vote on the entire round. Got that?