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I started to wonder why pretty much every Grey Knight list I've recently seen seems to automatically include anything from 2 to even 6 Psyriflemen dreads. So I did some math on how good they exactly are when compared to getting a Purgation Squad with 2 Psycannons (which is almost same price as Psyrifleman is).
4 shots (TL), BS4, S8, AP4
AV10 0,59 glancing hits, 2,34 penetrating hits. (62% chance of wrecked or exploded)
AV11 0,59 glancing hits, 1,76 penetrating hits. (50% chance of wrecked or exploded)
AV12 0,59 glancing hits, 1,17 penetrating hits. (37% chance of wrecked or exploded)
AV13 0,59 glancing hits, 0,59 penetrating hits. (19% chance of wrecked or exploded)
AV14 0,59 glancing hits. (no chance of wrecked or exploded)
T4, S3+ 0,98 casualties caused.
Purgation Squad Stationary (w/2*Psycannon)
8 shots, BS4, S7, AP4 Rending
AV10 0,89 glancing hits, 2,67 penetrating hits. (69% chance of wrecked or exploded)
AV11 0,89 glancing hits, 1,78 penetrating hits. (50% chance of wrecked or exploded)
AV12 0,89 glancing hits, 0,89 penetrating hits. (29% chance of wrecked or exploded)
AV13 0,89 glancing hits, 0,89 penetrating hits. (29% chance of wrecked or exploded)
AV14 0,30 glancing hits, 0,59 penetrating hits. (19% chance of wrecked or exploded)
T4, S3+ 2,37 casualties caused.
Purgation Squad Moving (w/2*Psycannon)
4 shots, BS4, S7, AP4 Rending 2,665 hits
AV10 0,44 glancing hits, 1,34 penetrating hits. (40% chance of wrecked or exploded)
AV11 0,44 glancing hits, 0,89 penetrating hits. (29% chance of wrecked or exploded)
AV12 0,44 glancing hits, 0,44 penetrating hits. (15% chance of wrecked or exploded)
AV13 0,44 glancing hits, 0,44 penetrating hits. (15% chance of wrecked or exploded)
AV14 0,15 glancing hits, 0,30 penetrating hits. (10% chance of wrecked or exploded)
T4, S3+ 1,18 casualties caused.
Revenant Moon Necrons: (W/L/D) 0/1/0 (6th edition: 13/2/2)(5th edition: 14/6/4)(3rd edition Codex: 16/4/7)
XIX Legion: (W/L/D) 0/0/0 (5th edition: 14/12/2)(5th edition Codex: 4/3/0)
Black Legion: (W/L/D) 1/0/0 (6th edition: 2/3/0)
Something Wicked... Reikwald Beastmen: (W/L/D) 10/4/1
Good bit of analysis you have done there. I have not been using the dread much but have been using a purgation squad with 3 psycannons and 1 psilencer to great effect. I know the points is more than your example but they are lethal at taking out tanks. Also should be noted that by taking 4 psycannons, your odds are remaing the same even when no line of sight can be drawn using astral aim.
The only major benefit I see the dreads have is the extended range that they provide. But as I say, would much rather take a purgation squad than a dread. Again having said that, I do include 1 in my 2000 point force, but 1750 or less it does not make the cut.
You are touching on a very interesting topic. PsyRifleDreads fulfill a very important role in the current competitive atmosphere. They are the single best and most cost effective unit for taking out light transports and AV12 in the game.
Witht that being said, PsyRifleDreads are not very efficient at taking out other targets, AV14 and to a lesser extent AV13, Heavy Infantry 3+ or better, and MCs.
A PsyRifleDread will only average a single wound on a 3+ MC which is the same number of wounds as a 3+ infantry model. Against and an all infantry based army especially a Terminator army, or a heavy armor army like AV13 spam BA, or to a lesser extent MC spam PsyRifleDreads will really underperform.
Spamming PsyRifleDreads has its weaknesses, but against many of the more competitive builds out there they are absolutely priceless. They can really scare AV12 spammed guard, razorspam, mechdar, DE raider/ravager spam, etc. Luckily any unit with a psycannon can easily fill in these holes.
Are they the be all end all of units, no. Do at least 2-3 have a place in competitive GK lists, absolutely. Is taking 6 of them the best policy, I doubt it unless you know what list you will be facing.
I must say this again, they are the absolute unrivaled kings of light AV destruction.
I think if you look at his calculations though they disput this king of av 12 theory. A Purgations squad has -
- Greater chance at av 10 (Great against war walkers/sentinels/vypers etc)
- Same chance at av 11
- Granted less at av 12 by 8%, but then they have a 10% greater chance at av 13 which is better. This also means that your odds are better overall because obviously if you are penetrating av 13, then you are also pentrating av 12. (56% chance of penetrating av 12 & 13 with dread & 58% chance with psycannon purgation squad) Not much difference but still better.
As I said previously range should be considered. Also another huge boon the dread offers is the reinforced aegis ability.
As for king of tank killing at any AV, I firmly belive this still lies with the Psycannon.
I also say that Psycannons are the single greatest weapon readily available to infantry in any army. Unfortunately they requires you to be rather close to the enemy while the PsyRifleDread is popping transports from T1 at very long range.
Range is huge when you are talking about transports. If a rhino comes within 24 in of your purgation squad and then dies, the squad that drops out can most likely return fire the next turn, or at least be in a much better position to be useful. Also, the purgation squad is fairly easy to avoid because of its smallish bubble of death. Popping a transport reliably at 48 in makes that tank a lot less useful for the enemy.
nothing like inter species cooperation!
you cant compare these 2, the range makes auto cannons , as everyone said, the undisputed kings of light armor destruction. (for the points value).
I take 2 because they are very vulnerable to assaults/deepstrikers. A dreadknight nearby really makes people think twice about deep striking meltas, as its a suicide mission for their unit and not a for sure wreck against the dread.
Eldar -APOC- 6500 Points
Chaos Daemons -Fate Crusher- 3500 Points
Grey knights - 1000 Points
I think what it comes down to is range. Both can take down tanks about the same but psycannons are mid range weapons where psyrifledreads are long range. And don't forget it's Aegis, won't always come into play but really helpful when it does.
It is very much each to their own, and different play styles will alter effectivness of each. I think that the auto include that people are talking about and looking at is just an easy way to make a list that without too much effort will be competitive. As we see across all armies, "OOOH that is great I am going to include as many as I can"
I just don't see them as an auto include, I see them as a lazy include.