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  1. #1
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    How do you calculate the odds of a character per turn? I wanna know if a character has 5 attacks, what is the average amount of attacks that will be successful per turn and so on with wounding and the odds of the opponent making their armor save.What is the equation for figuring out these statistics? Thanks!

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    Hmm, lets see here...

    Yay, probability lesson .

    I'm assuming that you are playing W40k, so if you aren't, please correct me .

    I'm just making this up, and this is no specific unit, so here goes:

    Guide to Calculating Stuff

    1. Chance to Hit
    -Lets say that the chance to hit for this unit is 50% (4+ on a six-sided dice). This means on average, they will actually hit about 2-3 times out of the five hits that they have (5 * 1/2 = 2.5, so 2-3 attacks hit). When determining percentage, you will use the 2.5
    Average Hits = 2.5 <- This will be used in the end formula, so just bear with me.

    I am using the 50% hit for this example, but if they hit 2/3 of the time (3+ on a six-sided die), they would hit on average (5 * 2/3, or 3.33 attacks per turn, just about 3 hits), just for an outside-of-the-example thing.

    2. Chance to Wound
    -Lets say that to wound, this unit has a 2/3 chance to wound a certain creature (3+ on a six-sided die). You will just take this number (2/3), and will use it in the final formula at the bottom.
    Chance to Wound = 2/3

    3. Armor
    -Lets say the unit being attacked has little armor, and will only save on a 6+ (1/6 chance of saving). Since you will be calculating the chance of the attack getting through, you will subtract this from 1: (1 - 1/6 chance of save = 5/6 chance of not saving). This number (2/3 in this case), will be used below.
    Chance of Failing Save = 5/6

    Formula
    Once you have calculated the three things above, plug them into this formula:

    Average Hits * Chance to Wound * Chance of Failing Save

    In this case:
    2.5 * 2/3 * 5/6 = 1.388...

    This means that out of 5 attacks, an average of 1.388 of them will hit, wound, and go through armor. Basically 1-2 of the attacks will actually do something to the enemy unit. If you want to make this a percentage:

    (1.388 / 5) * 100 = 27.26

    So, this unit has a 27.76% chance of hitting, wounding, and penetrating the armor on any given hit.

    End of Guide

    I hope that this helped a lot, and if you need clarification, just ask .

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    You can&#39;t get a general equation for this kind of thing, as too many variables are involved: Difference in WS, presence of master crafted weapons, Strengh vs Toughness ratio, type of weapon used (power, chainaxe, poisoned blades &c.), and finally type of armour. You&#39;d have to create an equation on the spot depending on the target. Or you could buy a scientific calculator and come up with one.

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    Thanks guys very much&#33;
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    I have developed an Excel Spreadsheet with all the functions needed to accurately model any (ranged or close) combat in the W40K games system and give you the percentage chance of achieving a result.

    For example :

    A Marine shooting at a Marine:

    To hit: 3+ i.e. 4 chances out of 6 (or) 66.67% to hit

    To wound: 4+ i.e. 3 chances out of 6 (or) 50%

    To FAIL a save: (save = 3+) therefore TO FAIL = 2 chances out of 6 (or) 33.33%

    Therefore for a Marine to wound a Marine = 67.67% * 50% * 33.33% = 11.11%

    A Marine vs. a Terminator = 67.67% * 50% * 16.67% (i.e. 100/6) = 5.56%

    therefore:

    100 / 11.11 = 9 i.e. nine shots to wound a marine (on average)

    100 / 5.56 = 18 i.e. eighteen shots to wound a terminator.

    I hope this helps...

    Incidentally, the percentage chance of wounding with several attempts (example: 5 attacks at 50% each) is NOT 5 * 50% = 250%. It&#39;s 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% = 96.88% (one attack will have a 50% chance of success, two will have 75%, three 87.50%, four 93.75% and five 96.88%). Obviously there is a (small)chance of each attack in succession failing.

    The Excel Formula to give you the percentage of massed attempts is :

    =(1-(1-B1)^C1)

    Where B1 = the percentage chance of one success
    and C1 = the number of attempts
    Ryan Dancey, Vice President of Wizards of the Coast, believed that TSR failed because of "...a near total inability to listen to its customers, hear what they were saying, and make changes to make those customers happy." Are you listening, Games Workshop ?

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