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Since I just couldn't rationalise out this argument to myself at all, I decided that some uneccessarily complicated formulae were neccessary. I decided I'd tidy it up a bit and put in in spreadsheet form in case anyone was interested. You can download the excel sheets at:
Excel Pre-2007 Format
Excel 2007 Format
It's quite interesting to note not only where and how each outperforms the other, but by just how much each one outperforms the other under given conditions.
When I get a chance, I'll run a whole set of data and provide some actual numbers as to which is better overall in given arbitrary conditions, and why.
Of course, the calculator can never take into account the benefit of having shields on the Javelin skinks. You'll have to do that yourself
Last edited by Calmdown; August 23rd, 2007 at 15:45.
Your math is fuzzy.
A skink firing 2 shots on 6s has a 1/3 chance of wounding. According to the calculator it has a 28% chance not 33%.
There is also no room for skirmishers which are the bane of skinks.
Its a great idea, though b/c the values are all relative to each other I would think it would be easier to find the patterns and post them here.
I think you've mis-entered something - set the conditions so that the skink needs 6's to hit, and with the target's armour save at 6. The chance of scoring at least one hit (which is not the same as scoring one hit) is precisely 1/3.
Actually though, the descriptions are a little off - since it factors in saving throws, it should actually say 'Chances to Cause a Wound' and not 'Chances to Wound', I'll alter that.
Also, the sheet is not yet compatible with conditions that require a 7+ to hit (ie, 2 shots, moved, over 6" to target); I did mean to add a note about that. I had enough time today to write the sheet but not enough time to finish it to a full standard I guess ^^
As I said in the OP, I will post some patterns and conditional bits once I have time to play around with it more (and make it output the data to a sensible format).
I set the armour save to 0 so that it wouldn't count. Should be 33% then.
Also, if you set the armour save to 10+ it has a better chance of causing a wound in your chart...
Can the skinks use maths to fly? (I hope someone gets this reference)
The armour save formula works for values of 2 to 6.I'll add more notes to specify how to use it, though I can't remember the last time a unit had to make a 10+ armour save
There is actually an error in the 'one hit' formula, which I've corrected.
However, your mathematics for the chances of a skink that needs a 6 to kill causing at least one wound are incorrect. Here are the numbers in simple terms:
Results
1 6
2 6
3 6
4 6
5 6
6 6
6 5
6 4
6 3
6 2
6 1
Of the 36 results possible on two dice, those are the 11 that result in at least one wound. Hence you have an 11/36 = ~31% chance of causing at least one wound, not a 33% chance.