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Probability calculation.
Ok, so I'm not a math wiz, but if any of you out there are, perhaps you can help me understand.
The probability for 1 dice to land on a 5 or 6(5+) is 2/6(1/3), or 0,33
Now, what I thought was that the probability for 2 dice to land on a 6 (you only want 1 of the dice to be a 6) was the same. But since I wanted to be sure I did it the hard way, so I listed up all the possible variations. I listed the 36 possible combinations, and when I marked the desirable ones, I only counted 11. Does this mean that the probability for throwing a 6 on 2 dice is 11/36 or 0,305?
- Resistance is Futile -
- I'm not a Nerd! I'm a 13th level Paladin -
- Jesus saves ..... and takes half damage -
Probability of throwing a six on each of the two dice, or the results combined?
Theres only one outcome on each out of six that is a six, in which case, it'd be 1/6 x 1/6, or 1/36 chance of getting a pair of sixes. Its not the same as 2/6 or the equivalent as one outcome is dependent on another.
its basically shorthand for saying "The probability of getting a six given that you already have gotten one", kind of.
Last edited by Phobos; June 10th, 2005 at 23:32.
"It fits like clothes made out of wasps!"
The probability of getting one 6 on any of the dice. A 1 and a 6 would be a desirable result. A 4 and a 6 would also be good. I want to know the probability of getting a 6 if you throw 2 dice.
- Resistance is Futile -
- I'm not a Nerd! I'm a 13th level Paladin -
- Jesus saves ..... and takes half damage -
A six on either? 2/12.
"It fits like clothes made out of wasps!"
Which pretty much breaks down to 1/6 again doesn't it?Originally Posted by Phobos
There is still a 1/6 chance of each dice rolling a 6, but because you are rolling 2 dice you are you are doubling your chance of rolling a 6.....
..... which is kind of 2/6.....
.......I think!!! :huh:
I would not trust this. Last night I was owed in a 400 pts combat patrol with my Necrons. I would have one but I seriously rolled at least 4 1 a shooting phase. When the Space Wolves were in range of Rapid Fire I got 18 shots and only 3 hit, so I dont relay on probaility to see if I will win.
Sensible..... the only thing about probability is that it probably won't happen when you want it to.Originally Posted by Osaria
May I ask how you calculate this?Originally Posted by Phobos
- Resistance is Futile -
- I'm not a Nerd! I'm a 13th level Paladin -
- Jesus saves ..... and takes half damage -
Here's the actual maths......
The chance of at just one 6 coming up when you roll 2 dice is 10/36
the chance of rolling a double 6 is 1/36
How?........
If you work through the possible combinations you will see that the number 6 appears on a single dice in 10 of the 36 possibilites (it also appears as a double 6, but this is not then a sigle 6 is it?).... hence there is a 10/36 chance of rolling a single 6.
In all 36 possibilities the chance of two 6's appearing only occurs once, obviously as a double 6.... therefore there is only a 1/36 chance of rolling two 6's.
Here's the table...
Hope that helps,
Wolfkin
Wolfkin is correct. And that is a nice picture of the dice Wolfkin... *snatch* ...got a copy of it now.
Anyhow, you take the total number of times the combination you want to occur and divide that by the total number of possible combinations.
Examples:
If you are looking for ONLY one six to appear on 1d6 then:
total number of single sixes possible = 1
total number of possible combinations = 6
So your odds of throwing a single six on a single d6 is 1/6 or about 17%
If you are looking for ONLY one six to appear, then:
total number of single sixes possible on 2d6 = 10
total number of possible dice combinations = 36
So your odds of throwing one six on 2d6 is 10/36 or about 28%
Now, if you are looking for a six in any combination to appear then:
total number of sixes possible on 2d6= 11
total number of possible combinations = 36
So your odds of throwing a 6 (including the double six) on 2d6 is 11/36, or about 31%.
This should be VERY apparent by the chart put up by Wolfkin.
~the machine god
{secretly the machine god plays Tau and CSM ...shhhh...don't tell the adepts!!!}