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Yep, you all knew it was coming. Someone was going to start a thread about it, so we might as well get it over and done with Like most good threads about these kind of things, it will most likely escalate to a flaming match, and result in it being locked, but let's do our best to keep things civil. So, let the speculation begin-
We have all heard the news about the underground nuclear test in North Korea. You will also remember back to the missile tests in the Japan sea not too long ago that caused outrage in the international commmunity. Japan is all shook up, and as always, America is willing to step in. The ever-useless UN are being pressed for sanctions, North Korea is threatening a second nuclear test, and warning that increased sanctions could be looked upon as an act of war by the US. Tensions are building, and it looks like things are headed one way - War.
Although North Korea's actions are frightening, and there is good reason to be wary of them with nuclear weapons capabilities, you must also admit that America has had no small part to play in all of this. Bush called Iran, Iraq and North Korea the 'axis of evil', then proceeded to invade Iraq. What does that lead to? The other two countries in this 'axis of evil' developing nuclear capabilities. Good job Bush, way to screw things up big time, once again.
This leads to some questions - Is North Korea really insane enough to develop nuclear weapons and launch them at America, only to be faced with a nuclear holocaust in return? Or are they simply trying to ensure that America doesn't invade them next by developing nuclear weapons capabilities? Will this turn out to be the next war? Who's side will China take? Will U.N sanctions work? Let the discussion begin...
Well I will start.
The developments in North Korea could have many different scenarios on the political stage. Worldwide, the goverment of North Korea only has a few supporters, and it's largest, China, has already condemned the 'alledged' nuclear test as a rash act.
The last thing China will want is an international crisis on it's doorstep. The fact of the matter is instability in the korean peninsula threatens shipping roots, which China needs to maintain it's growth, as well as the possibility that it could cause the secretive government of North Korea to collapse, causing thousands of refugees to flood across it's borders. China, by equal measure, will not approve sanctions from itself, as that could also lead to a colapse.
The UN will do what it always does. Send a letter, berating this test and saying that North Korea is irresponsible. It will probably be used as toilet paper by Kim Jong-il.
Japan have already issued sanctions, which will stop all aid from that country as well as all imports from North Korea, (which are principally Mushrooms I think :shifty: ). They are the first to really do anything about it.
The USA and UK will use the UN to act for them, as neither governments want a war with this country. They will demand sanctions from the UN and probably enforce their own. This is their way of wagging a finger at the naughty child.
Just my thoughts :ninja:
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I have no question that in the annals of history, the bush administration's 'efforts' at 'international diplomacy' will be cited as "how-NOT-to-do-it" examples.
Bush walked away from on-going talks with N. Korea in 2001 right after he was elected (probably couldn't be bothered while on vacation for 80 or so of his first 100 days in office). His "axis-of-evil" crap did little to help.
While I agree that N. Korea is NOT a normal state (being led by a wacko and all), and cannot be reasoned with in the normal manner, the US has pretty much navigated themselves into an ugly spot. GB's saying that "the US would NOT tolerate a nuclear (although he probably said "nucular ) N. Korea" has put us in a difficult position.
They ARE nuclear, so now what?
There is no way the US could possibly invade, there is no available soldiery. Air strikes would only escalate the situation. The UN is being their generally impotent selves. (I think the UN COULD be a great stabilizing influence, but would have to move out of the shadow of the US's bank book and grow some cojones). The regions' other powers will most likely have to exert their considerable influence and pressure N.K. to step back a bit.
Oh, WHERE is the Officio Assassinorium when you need it?
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North Korea is just acting like a small child who wants the world to take attention,they see all the fuss that the world is making about iran right now and think to themselfs "Iran are getting so much attention right now with there nuclear program that the world has forgotten about us so lets jump on the ban wagon"
North Korea just wants more aid from America as they dont really think that china will let them build up there nuclear capability? They may have in the past but now china wants to be a world power and the only way you can do that is with world trade. China will be on our side in this as it has to much to lose.
Aslo there is now way right now that America could go to war with North Korea as they are already involved in two warzones and england cant help you as things in afghanistan are getting harder by the day. Aslo things would hot up in both iraq and afghanistan as insurgents would see this as there chance to attack a even more over exsteaded American army.
I am more worryed about iran as at least North Korea can be negotiated with and is not tied up in religion.
That is hilarious, Phobos! :w00t:
I've never understood how Iraq and Iran -- neither of which had nuclear weapons programs -- were regimes that needed military threats (and an invasion) to keep in line, while, at the other end of the "Axis of Evil", N Korea didn't. In fact, the proper way of dealing with NK was apparently to ignore it entirely. Wha? Let's compare:
* Led by a crazy-ass dictator?
Iran: Not so much, but definitely not a fan of US.
N Korea: Craziest on the planet!
* Repressing, torturing, and killing the locals?
Iran: Repressing, maybe, but not so much on the torture/killing front.
N Korea: Holy crap! Kim Jong Il guy makes Saddam look like a nice guy.
* Nuclear weapons program?
Iran: Lots of international monitoring ensuring that they are starting to develop a civil nuclear power program, but that's it (until, perhaps, just the last month or so).
Iraq: Nope. Been proven beyond a reasonable doubt.
N Korea: Long suspected true. Now almost certainly true.
* Military capable of attacking neighbors?
Iran: Not really. Iran has tenuous relations throughout its region, and isn't necessarily liked by anybody. Kinda boxed in.
Iraq: After the first Gulf War and the constant military monitoring, nonexistent for all practical purposes.
N Korea: Absolutely!
* Sitting on top of valuable natural resources?
Iran: Oil, of course.
Iraq: Oil, of course.
N Korea: Nada.
So, to summarize, N Korea has been objectively more evil to its populace, for a longer period of time, and has the largest military threat capability of any of the three "Axis" powers. Yet we are more interested in stomping all over Iran and Iraq while walking away from negotiations with N Korea multiple times, and refusing to talk at all except under terms which we know N Korea will never accept. The only logical explanation is that Iran and Iraq must matter more. And the only logical reason for that is because of oil. Since N Korea has no "strategic" interest, we are happy to leave it at name-calling for them.
So, will we go to war with N Korea? I seriously doubt it. Unless N Korea initiates hostiliites, and fires missiles or marches troops across the border, we will continue to treat them like a little child rather than as the evil, serious threat they actually are. Not because they aren't a serious threat, but because they don't have anything we want.
Last edited by number6; October 11th, 2006 at 15:54.
ninjabackhand: point and click, again, really? even after i give you an military term "shock tactic" you still call it point and click.
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Its not just oil but aslo one of America's allys israel.
After all the things that iran has said and at the same time developing a nuclear program i am worried about the safety of israel and im sure that is why America is dealing with iran right now as they are only looking out for one of there allys.
I don't think there will be war with Korea, China's influence, the lack of resource and not least North koreas possible (actual?) nuclear capabilities. I would imagine that the US will slowly try and steer their foriegn policy in a partial U turn..
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well even if a war starts, wont it just be an easier way to test teh nukes?
is it jsut me or are they going to be able to test them
P. S. sorry for teh bad typing, my fingers are frozen, and they wont move where i want them to:cry:
Even academic studies into their various violations are immedietly thrown down as being 'nazi filth'. That is very very scary - losing the power to speak against a particular group in an academic fashion. Talk about untouchables!
They're a nation who blatantly disregard UN International law, have no qualms over invading their neighbours, will openly assassinate political opposition and have funded terrorism in the past (against Brits like you and me). Israel this is.
The only reason they get away with it is because of superb media and journalism. (if you scratch at the surface of who owns news stations and networks, you'll find a disturbing correlation between media gurus and pro zionic/israeli views.)
Hence, the over coverage and glorification of all matters Israeli related.
Sounds like they need sorting out to me. I wouldn't trust them with nukes more than i'd trust the US or North Korea.
So far, there's no hard evidense of evidense of Iran 'nuking up' and i'm an advocate of innocent until proven guilty.
(I also suggest that we should either start a new thread if we want to discuss this )
Getting it back on track.. i find it interesting that the so called bastions of justice have done very little against this. Seeing a tyrant who openly represses his nation behind close doors arm up and do nothing against him.
I hope to God that Berny Mac is right, but i fear that Number 6 is right.
I'm not sure that super conservative prime minister Abe is going to help matters.. although to his credit, he did avoid going to the Yasakune Shrine, which RIchard Gere lookalike Koizumi always managed to do :hmm:
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