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I've done searches and haven't seen a post that addressed this topic:
Does anyone out there know how to do the math to calculate specific probabilities?
For example, let's say I'm making an army list and choosing between two units. They have the same point value. The first unit has mounted characters with lances, has WS5, S4, A1. The second unit moves on foot, has WS4, S6, A2, great weapons, and is frenzied. I can get 10 models of one or the other. the mounted units can fight in two rows, the units on foot cannot. How do I figure which will cause the most wounds on a unit with, say, an armor save of 5+? I don't mean, "Well, the first unit will probably cause 4-6 hits, then will probably get at least 2 wounds." I want to know if someone has the math skills and can explain which is mathematically the most probable to cause the greatest number of wounds (not with this example of course).
I want to know the odds, not the potential.
It's real easy. You just need specific situations. For example, you can't compare Flaggies to KotIC, since they don't even have the same battlefield role. Even if you decide to work out how much they will destroy, you need a specific opponent. Again, Chaos warriors will be harder to kill than Skavenslaves.
So theoretically yes, but it does require a few blanks to be filled in.
Ahhh, Mathhammer!! *flees*
he he... mathammer...
Ok, so here's a specific scenario; I'll use HE and Brets since I know those two armies best:
A unit of Bretonnian KOTR finishes it's move exactly 12" away from both a Bolt Thrower, and a unit of Arches with ten models in it. During the HE player's shooting phase, how many wounds will each unit cause against the KOTR? Assume that no "to hit" modifiers apply. Line of sight is fine. All 10 archers can shoot. The Bolt Thrower will use the Volley. The KOTR have an armour save of 2+. The Bolt Thrower only gets six shots, but it causes S4 hits with a -2 armour save modifier. The archers get 10 shots but at only a S3. Both units have a BS of 4, however, the archers have a Hawkeye with BS5.
I want to be able to crunch the numbers and say "Odds are the BT will cause X amount of wounds, and the archers will cause Y amount of wounds."
Ok, thats simple... and its acceptable as its not the annoying type of MH lol. Just work the percentages... 9 bowmen at BS4, 9 shots hit on 3+, so 2/3 = 6 hits. Wound on 3+, so 2/3 = 4 wounds. Save of 2+, so 1/6th = 2/3 failed. The Knights take 2/3 wounds from the bowmen.
Do the same for the Bow Champ, and the Blter, and just add all the results.
Ofcourse, if you do this for every scenario in every game, your opponant will probably have packed up and gone to bed before youve finished your turn. Also, thats what dice are for, roll them and find out! Lot faster too, and it makes the game a bit more interesting rather than running it all on averages lol.