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  1. #1
    Member Atmos's Avatar
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    Runes of Witnessing notice

    Someone said that these runes were a bad choice in another thread because they increase PotW risks, i've forgotten who, and i decided to work out what their merits were. They don't increase risk, they decreaseit, from 1/17 to 1/40, well worth 10 pts to save your Farseer from a bad dice roll, don't you think?


    "If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." Albert Einstein

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    Advocatus Diaboli Rork's Avatar
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    Personally, I've always taken them, even with the change to T3. There is more chance to roll a double one, but it does make the double 6 particularly unlikely (1 in 216).

    Some players just don't like the risk.


    Having an army and not owning a rulebook is like owning a car with no steering wheel.

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    Senior Member MurekZar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Atmos View Post
    Someone said that these runes were a bad choice in another thread because they increase PotW risks, i've forgotten who, and i decided to work out what their merits were. They don't increase risk, they decreaseit, from 1/17 to 1/40, well worth 10 pts to save your Farseer from a bad dice roll, don't you think?
    Maybe you were referring to somebody else, but I am one of those who advise against Runes of Witnessing (RoWit). Let me explain why...

    The likelihood for Perils of the Warp (PotW) on a normal 2D6 psy test is 2/36 = 0.0556. With RoWit the likelihood becomes 17/216 = 0.0787 (see [$$] below...). This is almost 42% higher than without RoWit. That's a substantial increase in my book... If you consider that your Farseer will make one test per game turn in a standard game of 6 turns, the expectancy of 1 PotW over the whole game is 0.3333 without RoWit, and 0.4722 with the Runes. Of course the use of RoWit greatly reduces the risk of FAILING a psy test (from 0.0833 to 0.0185, almost an 80% reduction!), but, looking at it the other way, it only improves your chances of SUCCESS for any psy test by 7% (from 0.9167 to 0.9815). Which way should we look at all this ? I say that in terms of game effect we should consider our chances of success for psy powers, and our risk of dying to PotW... So I look at a 7% positive effect on the one side, and at a 42% negative effect on the other...

    Now, what I really warn against is the combination of RoWit, Spirit Stones and 2 psy powers on a single T3 Farseer (not Eldrad, of course, his higher T is so good...) I've tried that several times, and I was surprised to see that in each game my Farseer would die to PotW. That got me a fine reputation with WH40k friends around here... I did the math, and found that the likelihood of PotW had jumped to 0.9444. That's close enough to 100%, so it was absolutely normal that my supercharged Farseer would die each time...

    The question is not just a matter of likelihood. In terms of effect on the game, losing a supercharged Farseer can be crippling. Missing a psy test or two is a pain, sure, but I prefer my Farseer to live for another turn, which has of course several benefits :
    * you do not lose victory points to your opponent [yet...]
    * the Farseer can shoot, assault...
    * he is likely to save a unit from failing a Morale test
    * he is a threat that your opponent must take into account (e.g. Runes of Warding, Singing Spear, Doom...)

    So you see, on the whole, I prefer to keep my Farseer(s) (1) cheap and (2) alive by having them with just one power, and without RoWit. I am perfectly willing to run the slightly higher risk of failing a psy test.

    Now this is all about what I think. You're most welcome to have a different opinion... I just try to share my personal experience, and my conclusions, in the hope that it can help other Eldar players making their own mind on Farseer options...



    [$$] The 17 instances (over 216) where PotW occur are as follows :

    Dice #
    A B C

    1 1 1
    1 1 2
    1 1 3
    1 1 4
    1 1 5
    1 1 6
    1 2 1
    1 3 1
    1 4 1
    1 5 1
    1 6 1
    2 1 1
    3 1 1
    4 1 1
    5 1 1
    6 1 1
    6 6 6
    Last edited by MurekZar; April 26th, 2008 at 14:15.

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    Basically, Witnessing increases your chance of Perils, but decreases your chance of not activating a psychic power. That isn't very useful, especially when it comes with a points cost.

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    RoWit is only useful when the power your farseer is casting is more important than the life of your farseer. it is strange that you can give your seer something that makes him more of a suicide bomber tho. I personally think that this should have been roll 3 and pick 2 but that's just me.

    It is epic when a farseer using RoWit uses mind war on a character rolls 2 1's, wins the mind war, and they both die at the same time.
    Never apologise for asking questions young seers, through asking
    questions we find answers, and through those answers we gain
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    Now, at the low cost for Stones, it makes sense for a Farseer to take them, thus, each farseer will make 12 Psychic tests a game.

    Without runes, you have a 49.7% chance to take at least one Perils.
    With runes, you have a 72.7% chance to take at least one Perils. 1-[(199/216)^12] {note: MurekZar must have "done the math" wrong}

    However, Runes of Witnessing effectively counter the blocking power forcing you to roll three dice, since you already are rolling three dice - just selecting the lowest two.

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    The Demagogue Amishcellphone's Avatar
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    Regardless of how you guys mathammer it out, it's the roll of the die, and personally when I use them I end up hitting perils more often than when I don't. I guess I'm just statistically unlucky.
    "War does not determine who is right - only who is left" Bertrand Russell

    We bring only death, and leave only carrion. It is a message even a Human can understand.

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    Sparta! Exarch Thomo's Avatar
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    Actually, Amnish, that would mean you are statiscally accurate in regards to getting PotW'd more often. I know for one I have stated numerous times that RoW increase the risks of Perils, and every bit of math I have ever seen for it (I haven't done anything more than basic myself. I can't stand mathshammer) agrees with that statement - as does the 'real life' anecdotal evidence.
    Dovie'andi se tovya sagain (It's time to roll the dice)- Mattrim Cauthon

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    Senior Member MurekZar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WizWom View Post
    Now, at the low cost for Stones, it makes sense for a Farseer to take them, thus, each farseer will make 12 Psychic tests a game.

    Without runes, you have a 49.7% chance to take at least one Perils.
    With runes, you have a 72.7% chance to take at least one Perils. 1-[(199/216)^12] {note: MurekZar must have "done the math" wrong}

    However, Runes of Witnessing effectively counter the blocking power forcing you to roll three dice, since you already are rolling three dice - just selecting the lowest two.
    Thanks for correcting me, WizWom; I was obviously too quick here, and didn't take into account the cumulative likelihood the right way... Shame on me ! I get your 72.7%, but I do not see how you get 49.7% without RoWit....

    Now, I guess I was wrong to focus on the risk of occurrence of PotW. What we should consider is the risk of the Farseer dying to PotW, which means we must also take into account the Ghosthelm save.

    Now here's a chart that gives the likelihood of a T3 Farseer dying to PotW by the end of turn N (I hope I have it right, now !)

    http://www.librarium-online.com/show...3&ppuser=21563

    I remain wary of overloaded HQ ICs, but I have to admit that RoWit does not look so bad now...

    Hope this helps

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    i agree with the math, but being a person who plays 5 days out of the week, so about 10 games a week, i would say i using RoWT i have to make a perils test maybe 3 times a week. usually pretty lucky with those things i guess.

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