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Got a little bored so wanted to crunch some numbers on hormagaunts with upgrades. So here are some hormagaunt units with different upgrades all totaling 120 points as that was the easiest unit value to do. It is also assuming your entire unit actually all make it into combat range. These are all with the hormagaunts assaulting things out of cover and vs things with lower init then 5. The adrenal glands obviously will preform better vs. things with init 5 or 6 and the gaunts with poison glands will wound things equally well beyond t5.
Hormagaunt x20 t3 t4 t5
60 attacks 32.5 hits 16.25 10.73 5.2
Hormagaunts x15 adrenal glands t3 t4 t5
45 attacks 24.3 16.03 12.15 8.02
Hormagaunts x15 sacs t3 t4 t5
45 attacks 24.3 18.23 12.65 12.65
Hormagaunts x10 sacs/glands t3 t4 t5
30 attacks 16.2 12.15 12.15 8.1
Your study seems to point out that Toxihormies are a little bit better than the other possible variants but your numbers only work in your chosen ration:
20 Vanilla vs 15 Toxic we've already seen this
let's say 5 die while closing in with the enemy (Almost certain assumption)
then we would have
15 Vanilla vs 10 Toxic:
Wounding chances against t3 are the same: 11.25 vs 11.25
Wounding chances against t4 are the same: 7.5 vs 7.5
Wounding chances favour Toxihormies: 3.75 vs 7.5
let's say 10 die while closing in with the enemy (Quite possible assumption)
10 Vanilla vs 5Toxic
Wounding chances against t3 favour Vanilla: 7.5 vs 5.63
Wounding chances against t4 favour Vanilla: 5 vs 3.75
Wounding chances against t5 favour Toxic: 2.5 vs 3.75
if 5 more die there are no more Toxihormies left XD
Toxihormies are thus superior to Vanilla against t5 all the way through to their death.
However, as soon as they start taking casualties their potential against t3 and 4 goes lost.
Not only Vanillas score equal or better, they also have more staying power:
I woudn't hope 5 toxigaunts to survive one round of CC.
10 Vanillas could on the contrary still have 1 or 2 models left to block that important squad.
yeh there is plenty of other things to consider. The fact that the same number of guys wont make it into combat that you start with is a huge "hidden" factor. The poisongaunts i think outshine due to them wounding everything. The adrenal glands also have the slim chance of hurting vehicles which also isn't taken into account with these numbers.
The next step would be to take the totals and divided them by the number of models to show the combat effectiveness loss per model. As Pip was demonstrating the more expensive units are obviously hurt with equal number of losses.
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Consider that if you close in to your enemy and your enemy is t5 or better, your vanilla essentially suck. I think the versatility of being able to kill Ctan, wraithlords, avatars, daemon princes, etc with ease is worth the points.
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