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I did some thinking about probabilities relating to Tervigons and their ability to spawn termagants and when I went searching for the numbers, there were a lot of variations in what people said and not much to back it up. So I figured it out and thought I would put it here for people's use.
The possible outcomes for rolling 3-dice – organized according to the sum of the 3 dice.
3 (1,1,1)1 1
4 (1,1,2)3 3
5 (1,1,3)3(1,2,2)3 6
6 (1,1,4)3(1,2,3)6(2,2,2)1 10
7 (1,1,5)3(1,2,4)6(2,2,3)3(3,3,1)3 15
8 (1,1,6)3(1,2,5)6(1,3,4)6(2,2,4)3(2,3,3)3 21
9 (1,2,6)6(1,3,5)6(1,4,4)3(2,2,5)3(2,3,4)6(3,3,3)1 25
10 (1,3,6)6(1,4,5)6(2,2,6)3(2,3,5)6(2,4,4)3(3,3,4)3 27
11 (1,4,6)6(1,5,5)3(2,3,6)6(2,4,5)6(3,3,5)3(3,4,4)3 27
12 (1,5,6)6(2,4,6)6(2,5,5)3(3,3,6)3(3,4,5)6(4,4,4)1 25
13 (1,6,6)3(2,5,6)6(3,4,6)6(3,5,5)3(4,4,5)3 21
14 (2,6,6)3(3,5,6)6(4,4,6)3(4,5,5)3 15
15 (3,6,6)3(4,5,6)6(5,5,5)1 10
16 (4,6,6)3(5,5,6)3 6
17 (5,6,6)3 3
18 (6,6,6)1 1
Red numbers represent the amount of ways each of the 56 outcomes can be rolled and blue is the total outcomes for each number 3-18
There are 216 outcomes but for the sake of making a smaller table, i have discounted the outcomes which have the same numbers in them, making 56 outcomes.
Don't confuse the 56 outcomes with the 216 actual outcomes. It is very important to make this distinction when calculating probability
-216 outcomes 96 have doubles. 44.4% chance of rolling doubles.
-the average number of Termagants is 10.5
-the probability of generating 9,10,11 or 12 is 48% and 8-13 termagants is 67.6%
The chance of making it through turn 1 without rolling doubles is 55.6% (120/216x100 )
multiply by .556 and....
-turn 1+2 is 30.9%
-turn 1+2+3 is 17.2%
-turn 1+2+3+4 is 9.5%
Conclusion, the odds of getting around 10 termagants is very good but the chances of generating termagants past turn 2 starts to get bad. Try not to rely on a Tervigon to spawn lots of termagants, but you can rely on it to be a hard to kill MC. Termagants are just a lucky bonus
some interesting figures with 3 dice
chance of specific 3 of a kind - 0.46%
chance of specific 2 of a kind - 7.4%
chance of any 3 of a kind - 2.7%
chance of any 2 of a kind - 44.4%
chance of a specific number - 42.1%
Last edited by Roboute Guilliman; October 11th, 2010 at 09:05. Reason: unintentional emoticons
Oh wow, look mom....it's a math class.
Good to know. I've always heard that the chances to not roll doubles is a little better than 50% each turn. Thanks for showing the math.
Record: Win - Loss - Draw: Hive Fleet Pandora (New) 32-6-6 Space Wolf 7th Co. 52-11-6
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Yeah, seen similiar workups. Thanks, always fun to see the odds.
It's also why most people who field tervigons always have a minimum of two.
with 2, the chances that at least 1 will go past turn one is 80.2% so with 2 you got a good shot of getting at least 30 termagants. I haven't made one yet but thats why i was trying to figure it all out because I was considering whether I should make one and how good it will do stuff
The biggest downside I see is that you need to buy a ton of gaunts. Or make sure you get enough killed each round that you can recycle!
Last edited by Roboute Guilliman; October 12th, 2010 at 23:17.
you cannot get 108 termagants with a tervigon as if you role 18 you get a double so you would stop producing. this means the maximum number of termagants produced in a 6 turn game is actually only 93... only 93? thats still o whole lotta fleshborers.
sorry but you can. 4+5+6 is the highest roll without doubles which =15. if you roll that for six turns thats 90. then on the last turn you can roll doubles 6+6+6 totaling 108. when doubles are rolled the number still spawns that turn and then stops but because its the last turn it doesn't matter. but its almost imposible to achieve this so its hardly worth mentioning. but 108 is the max posible number