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Either i somehow messed up my math, or i'm the luckiest dice roller ever.
I'm pretty sure my math is correct, but my experimental dice rolls for Tomb Blades at BS 5(nebuloscope) against imperial guardsmen is about double what my math result suggests.
the profiles are 5 shots at BS 5, Tesla, Twin-linked. Strength 5 no AP against Toughness 3 Armor Save 5+
5 shots at BS 5 is a 2+ to hit. so 5/6 * 5 gives you your base hits of 4.17.
Now, the remaining 1/6 is rerolled due to twin linked. a 1/6 chance to get another 5/6 chance to hit is an additional .69 hits for a total hit chance so far of 4.86.
Working in tesla, after any twin linked rerolls have been made, you have a 1/6 chance of adding 2 additional hits.
This can be worked out as 4.86 + (4.86 * (1/6) * 2. or just 4.86 * (2/6)) for a total hit chance so far of 6.53.
Still with me?
Okay. now that many hits at strength 5 vs toughness 3 is going to wound on 2s, so hits * 5/6 nets wounds that go to armor save. 6.53 * (5/6) = 5.44 wounds
Since tesla has no AP, the guardsmen get there 5+ save. so 4 out of 6 (or 2/3) wounds will make it through 5.44 * (2/3) = 3.63.
Leaves you with a 3.63 wound chance against guardsmen.
HOWEVER! I rolled some practice dice 10 times with unsaved wounds totaling 6, 6, 6, 5, 4, 5, 8, 5, 3, 6. an average of 5.4 unsaved wounds.
My experimental data is way off from my theoretical results. I can't find any mistakes in my math though.
hits = shots * (35/36) -- -- (5/6 + (1/6 * 5/6) = 35/36)
hits = hits + (shots * (2/6))
wounds = hits * (5/6)
kills = (wounds * 2/3)
Last edited by zirch187; April 19th, 2012 at 15:33.
Well, I don't like mathhammer myself. I just play. BUT
You need to keep in mind that you are rolling dice. If you roll 6 dice, you are not necessarily going to get 1,2,3,4,5, and 6. You can get any combination of 1-6, 6 times. You can (seen it) roll 10 dice, get 10 6s. Now the chances of that are not exactly amazing, but its completely possible.
The idea (from what I gather) behind mathhammer is that it gives you statistical bests, but even though you might take a unit/option with the best chances, it doesn't give you a 100% guarantee you will get the best results. I have seen some strange games in my day, armies that are built horridly, beating competition lists, because the competition player had some TERRIBLE roles. Yeah, by math alone, he probably should have one by a landslide (game in mind was an OG tank filled IG list vs OLD Dark Eldar foot sloggers...[Like I said, terrible list]) but by pure luck on the DE players part, he won considerably.
I wont go into your math, as I would be way more likely to get something wrong than you hah but just keep in mind, as much as warhammer and other games are up to lists/tactics, the dice ultimately decide whats going to happen.
i do just because i like math. Wrote my own program for it actually.
i know it's possible to roll really high and all, but i figured it's equally possible to roll low, so i was expecting someone similar results to the math. also i rolled 10 more times and got 4.5 unsaved wounds on average.
eitherway, i'm setting these dice aside to use next time i play. you know... just in case these 6s keep popping up...
of course right after i post this... i roll 5 dice. get 5 2s. (it would hit so no biggy) and roll those 5 dice again and get... 5 1s! omg!
Last edited by zirch187; April 18th, 2012 at 07:13.
something else to think about. If you are keeping the tesla carbine on the bikes don't up grade to bs5 you will get more rerolls and a more chances of getting a 6 for two additional hits. I am no math whiz but how does that play in to you calculations?
At BS5 you have a 1/5 chance of rolling extra Tesla hits for the already calculated total hits. (The chance of rolling a 1 has been removed as to qualify as a hit to begin with.)
RANDOM.ORG - Dice Roller
Last edited by Spittle72; April 18th, 2012 at 19:51.
ohhhh yeaaaaahh. I see what you mean about the 1/5.
brings my theoretical closer to 3.
also rolled dice again andt his time my numbers matched the data.
my experimental rolls definitely shows do to the randomness of 6s and the addition of rerolls, the use of tesla provides a wide hit range, from getting no kills, to potentially doing 3 times the amount of kills as you shot in the first place.
Last edited by zirch187; April 18th, 2012 at 16:24.
if you wrote a program for that, make it roll 1000000 times the dices. That would give near-average results, which i bet are near your calculations (plus or minus that 1/5th or 1/6th coefficient said above)
My program doesn't randomize rolls. It just does the math for me so I can crunch any numbers.
Also I just realized tesla is still 1/6. The fact that ones are eliminated doesn't affect the individua die's probability to have been a 6 in the first place.
And I forgot the 1/6 tesla hance is against the number of shots, not confirmed hits.
Furtermore I just realized I was not accurately reflecting reroll probability of 6. Changed my equation and I get a result average of 4 (rounded) kills on 5 shots.
Last edited by zirch187; April 18th, 2012 at 17:57.
I'm lazy but is Bs4 twinlinked better then BS5 twinlinked when using tesla?
as BS4 gets to re-roll 3s as well as 2s, thus having 1 more 1/6 shot at a tesla hit, and 3/6 shot at an ordinary hit
way to lazy to do the math just curious if the extra points is actually worth it on tombblades (tesla hitting wise)
bs4 TL seems good enough I mean
B5 only seem worth it on the Blast alternative
chance of tesla effect for a single shot
BS5 TL: 1/6th at 1st roll, another 1/6 if you miss = 5/6 * 1/5 [this is because the pool of results is 2,3,4,5,6] + 1/6 * 1/6 [this is because we have not excluded the chance of a second miss, we're just looking for 6s the second roll] := 7/36 (just a little more than 1/6)
BS4 TL: 1/6th at 1st roll, another 1/6 if you miss = 4/6 * 1/4 [pool is 3,4,5,6 hot a hit 1st roll] + 2/6 * 1/6 = 9/36 (1.5/6)