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    Outcast Shinigami thedrifter777's Avatar
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    Is phase out to high?

    I'm sorry but I have gotten irritated as of late with the 25% rule of phase out. This is because I play alot of higher point games (1500 or greater) and at the point of phase out, I still have enough forces for a tactialy viable victory. A recent example for me was against a Dark Eldar player. Although he only had 2 wytches left, and me a 14 man warrior squad with my lord, he made a suicidal charge, killed three and I phased out (49 necrons). It was severly angering as I knew I could have taken them. Nothing like fighting a whole battle with victory in sight, only to have it ripped away by a technicality. Although I'll flat out say that I don't have a problem with the rule itself, I think it should be lowered to 10 or 15% where victory is pretty well assured to the opponent anyway. Does anyone else share my feelings or am I the odd one out?


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    Senior Member Evil von Doomstein's Avatar
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    I often feel the same way. one time my friend did the same thing as yours, but with a couple Orks. But, for now, it is the rule, so he does technically win. But, I usually claim a morale victory, saying my Necrons accomplished their goal of killing off most of a force. Sometimes, if your oppoenent is nice, he will pretty much admit you won, but this is rare, although it has happened to me. but for now we have to put up with it. :closedeye

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    The Pacifist Wargamer Quick's Avatar
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    Mathematically, the Phase-out rule is actually generous, if it is indeed intended to counter the "We'll Be Back" special ability. I worked it out thusly: (if I make errors in my logic, please correct me)
    "We'll Be Back" ensures that half your fallen Necrons will get up, so if anything, Phase-out should be 50%. Of course, there are all sorts of fudge-factors in there, such as "We'll Be Back's" applicability only in certain situations, et c.

    The upshot of all this is the nature of the Necrons themselves. With their speed and their powerful, but short-ranged weaponry, they do not make a very good force of attrition, even despite their tough natures. Exactly as the fluff would suggest, the Necrons operate best as a raiding force. (Get in, secure the objectives, kill everything that isn't a robot, and disappear as quickly as you came.) I try to play the Necrons like that as much as I can; therefore, when I lose by phase-out, it's usually because I was about to get pasted off the table anyway. It hardly ever keeps me from winning.


    WHFB: Dwarfs || WH40k: Imperial Fists, Necrons || WM/H: Trollbloods || BFG: Necrons

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    Senior Member Evil von Doomstein's Avatar
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    Very true Quickaswink, very true...

    I hadnt thought about the whole 50% and 25% thing. I think your right about that. But it still makes me sad when i could have won...

  6. #5
    Zed
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    Mathematically, the Phase-out rule is actually generous, if it is indeed intended to counter the "We'll Be Back" special ability. I worked it out thusly: (if I make errors in my logic, please correct me)
    "We'll Be Back" ensures that half your fallen Necrons will get up, so if anything, Phase-out should be 50%. Of course, there are all sorts of fudge-factors in there, such as "We'll Be Back's" applicability only in certain situations, et c.

    The upshot of all this is the nature of the Necrons themselves. With their speed and their powerful, but short-ranged weaponry, they do not make a very good force of attrition, even despite their tough natures. Exactly as the fluff would suggest, the Necrons operate best as a raiding force. (Get in, secure the objectives, kill everything that isn't a robot, and disappear as quickly as you came.) I try to play the Necrons like that as much as I can; therefore, when I lose by phase-out, it's usually because I was about to get pasted off the table anyway. It hardly ever keeps me from winning.
    You forget that some of we'll be back is included in there point cost. You can't garuntee that 50% the we'll be backs we'll be succesfully completed. If you're unlucky you might never make a good WBB roll, or at least very few. I'm not sure why they had to come up with the phase out rule. If they don't have people would complain that they were too tough but this is unfair when not everything is included like they're lack of units and wargear. I fell that WBB shouldn't be included in phase out, because its unfair. WBB is earned by necrons to compensate for the downsides for the army. I think that phase out should be at 10% it's lower but not too low and is reasonable. It's also easy to figure out. e.g. if I come up with a random number like 57 I can tell straight away that 10% is 5.7 or in other words 6, but finding 25% of this due to my lack of mathmatical skill means that I will have to pull out a calculator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quickasawink
    Mathematically, the Phase-out rule is actually generous, if it is indeed intended to counter the "We'll Be Back" special ability. I worked it out thusly: (if I make errors in my logic, please correct me)
    "We'll Be Back" ensures that half your fallen Necrons will get up, so if anything, Phase-out should be 50%. Of course, there are all sorts of fudge-factors in there, such as "We'll Be Back's" applicability only in certain situations, et c.
    The math is correct assuming every necron is killed in a way that allows a WBB roll. The only thing you missed is the fact that a single model can get back up again every turn if you're lucky! Think about the math (I will keep track of the number of deaths in "{}", will always round down, assume successful moral throws, and use only averages):

    20 models to start with {0 deaths}
    19 die {19 deaths}
    9 get back up
    ----------------
    10 models left
    9 die {28 deaths}
    4 get back up
    ----------------
    5 models left
    4 die {32 deaths}
    2 get back up
    ----------------
    3 models left
    2 die {34 deaths}
    1 gets back up
    ----------------
    2 models left
    1 dies {35 deaths}
    0 get back up
    ----------------
    1 model left
    1 dies {36 deaths}

    So, the original 20 Necrons actually (on average) performed the same as 36 Necrons without the WBB rolls! That's 80% more troops for free! I'll take the 25% phase out for an average of 80% bonus any day! Just make sure you get WWB rolls. Stay away from those power weapons!

    Quote Originally Posted by Zed
    You forget that some of we'll be back is included in there point cost. You can't garuntee that 50% the we'll be backs we'll be succesfully completed. If you're unlucky you might never make a good WBB roll, or at least very few. I'm not sure why they had to come up with the phase out rule. If they don't have people would complain that they were too tough but this is unfair when not everything is included like they're lack of units and wargear. I fell that WBB shouldn't be included in phase out, because its unfair. WBB is earned by necrons to compensate for the downsides for the army. I think that phase out should be at 10% it's lower but not too low and is reasonable. It's also easy to figure out. e.g. if I come up with a random number like 57 I can tell straight away that 10% is 5.7 or in other words 6, but finding 25% of this due to my lack of mathmatical skill means that I will have to pull out a calculator
    Check the math above. Unless I'm grossly incorrect in my assumptions (I am not math major by far) it seems the 25% phase out is more than adequate. The real goal of a Necron force is to make sure everyone gets to make those WBB roles or we're no better than space marines without unit upgrades and wargear.

    Figuring the 25% phase-out is too hard? If you can calculate 10% just double it and add 1/2 again. Or you can make a handy-dandy chart like I did so you can simply look it up.

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    Member dirksj's Avatar
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    25% = divide by 4. Pretty easy to do in your head, drop fractions. 57 necrons? 4 goes into 5 once leaving 1 and then into 17 4 times leaving 1. 14 1/4. Thus when you're down to 14 you poof.

    Or make a chart
    - Open up Excel
    - Put in the number 1 in A1
    - Put "=int(A1/4)" in B1
    - Select both A1 and B1 then autofill down (click the lower right hand corner of the B1 cell with both cells selected and drag down)
    - Print for easy reference

    --------

    On the 80%: It's likely you wont get all 80% due to them wiping out your squad before you actually get to the 1. Also you were favoring the enemies a bit, 19 deaths 9 stand is less than 50%.

    The mathematical series (A + Sum X=1 to infinity of (A/2)^x) approaches 2A. Which means mathematically if you could keep all fractions you would approach 100% additional models. Now there are mitigating factors in that you cannot get partial models, some models don't stand up due to power weapons, one has to be around for any to stand up, etc. But there you go.

    Also note 100% additional models is not 100% additional effectivness. Over the course of that time you ahve 40 wounds worth of models for 20 models purcahsed. But at any given time you never have more than 20 units. Really you're gaining wounds more than effectiveness.
    Last edited by dirksj; July 19th, 2005 at 23:32.
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    Try playing Nids, and have 9 warriors and A HT die to have 1000pts of gaunts running away.

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    The Pacifist Wargamer Quick's Avatar
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    Valid points and arguments, all. Indeed, though, there are so many mitigating factors in determining when the "We'll Be Back" rule can be applied, it is likely that the GW guys simply picked 25% as what they thought was a fair number.

    Also, Zed, when I mentioned the 50% success rate on the WBB roll, that is statistically consistent. In fact, anywhere from 32% to 68% success would not necessarily be considered statistically aberrant. (within first standard deviation) Luck is, of course, the ultimate fudge factor in all of this.


    WHFB: Dwarfs || WH40k: Imperial Fists, Necrons || WM/H: Trollbloods || BFG: Necrons

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    Member dirksj's Avatar
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    Yeah luck is a huge factor due to the small number (statistically speaking) of the sample size. In a six turn game you won't roll WBB more than 100 times and that's simply not enough for a good random distrobution. As you said, 30-70% would not be out of line at all.

    In addition the number that you fail early on will lower the number of rolls later on and failing early on will adversely affect you much more. Alternately you could make every WBB roll for the first few turns and seriously hose someone.

    Given that the entire game is based on luck tempered by skill this is acceptable. It's possible that a 500 point army can slaughter a 1500 point army taking no losses due to horrible rolls. It's an unfortunate side effect of dice driven games. Only with games like Chess can you not have a bad or good luck streak.

    I suspect the 25% was a stab. But I also suspect it wasn't the only stab. They probably tinkered around with it a bit and decided on what seemed to play the best. I'm not saying it's right or wrong, just what they ended up at.
    DirkSJ
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