"Should the Wraithlord by Toughness 7?" - A report and mathematical modelling sit. - Warhammer 40K Fantasy
 

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  1. #1
    Back in action! Lord Yossanrion's Avatar
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    "Should the Wraithlord by Toughness 7?" - A report and mathematical modelling sit.

    Hey guys,
    For Maths in school we had to Mathematically model a situation of a choice, for example, chaging the the scoring system of a sport. I decdied to do "What if the Wraithlord was T7?" So, here it is(be warned it is long):

    The Problem

    The fact that the Wraithlord has Toughness 8 means that it cannot be hurt be basic infantry firearms, as all infantry firearms (bar the Pulserifle), are under strength 4 or under. This also means that all basic troops cannot hurt it in close combat (all basic troops being strength 4 or under). Combined with its good stats and great gun this makes the Wraithlord a powerful addition to any Eldar force. However, some Eldar players take more than one, making a powerful combination, and one that is often considered to be unfair, and untrue to the background of the army.

    Many players are displeased with the Wraithlord’s high toughness of 8, because this means they have to waste their valuable anti-tank firepower, and additionally if the Wraithlord gets into close combat with a squad it means their squad will eventually get destroyed (as they cannot hurt the Wraithlord). Thus many players have called for the Wraithlord’s toughness to be lowered to 7, meaning most basic infantry gun can wound it in shooting, and that some infantry can hurt it in close combat. This is what I plan to model: what would happen if the Wraithlord was toughness 7? Would it decrease the efficiency of the unit? Or would it make the game fairer, and stop players taking too many of them? I will determine to find out.

    The Wraithlord now has the following stat-line:

    Wraithlord

    Points WS BS S T W A Ld Sv
    140 X X X 7 X X X X

    His performance will now be examined in shooting and combat.

    Shooting

    He has been made 10 points cheaper to compensate for the loss of 1 point of toughens. His new toughness will now be tested against a unit firing at him. This shall be a unit of Space Marines (this appropriate as Space Marines are the most played race).

    This is the situation:
    A unit of 10 Space Marines shoots at a Wraithlord that is 21” away. The Space Marines shoot first. They fire 10 Boltgun shots at the Wraithlord. The Marines hit on 3+ (2/3 of the time), and so hit roughly 6 times. 6 dice are then rolled to wound, and 1 6 will come up, wounding the Wraithlord. The Wraithlord will then take an armour save of 3+, needing 3+ on one dice to save the wound. The Wraithlord will save the wound 2/3ds of the time. It there is one round of shooting per a players turn it will take the Marines an average of 3 turns to make the Wraithlord take a wound. A game typically lasts for 6 turns. Therefore a basic squad of 10 Marines will cause 2 wounds to a Wraithlord per game. This is, however, only one Marine squad. If 3 squads of Marines fired at a Wraithlord in 1 turn, for 3 turns, the Wraithlord would be dead in 3 turns. This drastically decreases the Wraithlord’s value as a strategic unit, as normally it would be invulnerable to such attacks.

    In the Warhammer world there are many special weapons that can be taken by units. 5 of them, and how more effective they against the Wraithlord since its change, will be examined. These weapons are the: Plasmagun, Lascannon, Ioncannon, Autocannon and the Multi-Melta.

    Now the Wraithlord’s new stat-line will be “shot at” by each of these special weapons. We are assuming that these special weapons are being shot by a
    Space Marine. We are also assuming that the weapon hits 2/3 of the time in the game (as per the Marine’s BS).

    Plasmagun: This is compared with previously only being able to cause 2 wounds in an entire game. It used to wound on 5+, now wounds on 4+, and ignores the Wraithlord’s armour save. Ability increased by 50%. It has the ability to kill the Wraithlord in 6 turns (if being fired normally), or 3 turns (if being rapid fired). If several are used the Wraithlord could be gone in one turn.

    Lascannon: This is being compared with previously being able to kill the Wraithlord in 6 turns. It used to wound on a 3+, now wounds on a 2+ along with ignoring the armour save of the Wraithlord. Its ability to kill the Wraithlord is increased by 25%. Slightly more effective than it was, now being able to kill a Wraithlord in 3 or 4 turns. If several are used then the Wraithlord could be easily killed in 1 turn.

    Ioncannon: This is being compared with previously being able kill the Wraithlord in 5 – 6 turns. It used to wound on a 5+ and now wounds on a 4+ along with the ability to ignore the Wraithlord’s armour save. Its ability to kill the Wraithlord is increased by 50%. It now has the ability to destroy the Wraithlord in 3 turns. If several are used then the Wraithlord could be destroyed in 1 turn.

    Mutli-Melta: This is being compared with previously being able to wound the Wraithlord 2 times in a game. It used to wound on a 4+, and now wounds on a 3+ along with the ability to ignore the Wraithlord’s armour save. Its ability to kill the Wraithlord is increased by 33%. It now has the ability to kill the Wraithlord in 3 - 4 turns. If several are used then the Wraithlord could be killed in 1 – 2 turns.

    Autocannon: This is being compared with previously being able to wound the Wraithlord roughly 2 times in a game. It used to wound on a 5+ and now wound on a 4+, but allows the Wraithlord’s armour save. Its ability to kill the Wraithlord is increased 50%. It now has the ability to destroy the Wraithlord in 3 – 5 turns. If several are used then the Wraithlord could be killed in 2 – 3 turns.

    Combat

    Now, how the Wraithlord performs in combat under the new stat-line must be examined. The Wraithlord will be facing a unit of 10 Space Marines who have just charged the Wraithlord. The Squad is led by a Sergent who has a chainsword and pistol.

    A Marine gets 1 base attack, plus 1 attack for charging. The Sergent gets 3 base attacks, plus one for charging. This amounts to 22 attacks on the charge. The Wraithlord and Space Marines both strike at the same time, as they are both I 4. They will each hit on 4+, therefore the Space Marines get 11 attacks, and the Wraithlord will get 2 attacks (being optimistic for the Wraithlord). Wounding on 6’s the Marines will cause around 2 wounds to the Wraithlord, which are saveable. The Wraithlord will most likely kill two Marines (wounding on 2+) and will most likely save both wounds.
    Next round the Marines will get 10 attacks, and Wraithlord will get 3. The Wraith lord will hit once (averaging from last round), and the Marines will hit 5 times. They will most likely cause 1 wound on the Wraithlord which will not be saved (averaged from the last round of combat). The Wraithlord will kill another Marine.
    Next round the Marines will get 9 attacks, and the Wraithlord will get 3 (averaged from last turn). The Marines will hit 5 times, and wound once, which the Wraithlord will save (averaged from last turn). The Wraithlord will kill 2 Marines.
    Next round of combat the Wraithlord will get 1 attack (averaged from last turn), which will not wound (averaged from last turn). The Marines (there are 5 left, including the Sergent) will get 7 attacks, and will hit with 3 of them (averaged from last turn), and may or may not wound with them. This will continue until all the marines are dead, but will have had a good chance of wounding the Wraithlord once more, leaving it on one wound. The Wraithlord will win the combat, but will have been severely weakened, so that the enemy’s firepower will destroy it easily.

    Conclusion
    Having made this mathematical model of what would happen to the Wraithlord if it is made toughness 7 I can conclude several things:
    • The Wraithlord should not be made toughness 7, as this would drastically decrease its efficiency as a battlefield unit
    • If it is made toughness 7 then it should have its points cost lowered
    • It would be a wise idea to allow only 1 Wraithlord per 750 points of an army. This will stop people abusing the spirit of the game, and allow everyone to have fun.

    In short, the Wraithlord should be kept at T 8, but only 1 should be allowed per every 750 points of an army.

    ~Yossanrion

    P.S.
    Tell me if I've got anything wrong huh?

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  3. #2
    Favored of Tzeentch Viktor's Avatar
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    True, every stat is a dimension in itself, except WS which isn't that important.

    There is a huge difference between str 3 and str 4, and a huge difference between str 4 and str 5 etc. The same thing applies to tougness 7 and toughness 8, the Wraithlord would stop being an "Eldar Dreadnought" as it was meant to be.
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  4. #3
    Back in action! Lord Yossanrion's Avatar
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    I know, I found that out while doing this. I didn't know that it would that much a difference. My findings still stand, as do my conclusions.

    ~Yossanrion
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  5. #4
    Advocatus Diaboli Rork's Avatar
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    That is what I have always maintained - the wraithlord is not as indestructible as people think (limiting it in smaller games has always been a good idea).

    It is only when players think they won't ever face a wraithlord with their army that they end up in trouble. An Eldar player brings the weapons to kill a marine army...so a marine army should bring the weapons to kill an eldar army :yes:.


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  6. #5
    LO Zealot Sareld's Avatar
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    Good model, but you have made one slight mistake.. the wraithlord strikes at I1, because it uses dreadnought powerfists. Not that it matters muct, but if the wraithlord charges an SM HQ unit, it can mean everything.

    I also like your conclusion, it is true that lowering the toughness to 7 would leave the wraithlord unable to forfil its role on the battlefield. Good work.

  7. #6
    Favored of Tzeentch Viktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Farseer Sareld
    Good model, but you have made one slight mistake.. the wraithlord strikes at I1, because it uses dreadnought powerfists. Not that it matters muct, but if the wraithlord charges an SM HQ unit, it can mean everything.
    Units with dreadnought close combat weapons strike in initiative order.
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  8. #7
    LO Zealot Sareld's Avatar
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    108 (x4)

    its not a ccw, its a powerfist. Oh well.. I never really used wraithlords that much, I guess you are right. Ignore my previous statement about initiative.

  9. #8
    LO Zealot Ostsol's Avatar
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    *checks the codex and FAQ*

    Nope, it's definitely not a Powerfist. It's a Dreadnaught Close-Combat Weapon.

    Anyways, the Wraithlord is basically a Dreadnaught, so I really don't see why people complain about having to fire their anti-tank weapons at it.
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  10. #9
    Senior Member Ace of Spades's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ostsol
    Anyways, the Wraithlord is basically a Dreadnaught, so I really don't see why people complain about having to fire their anti-tank weapons at it.
    People complain because you can hurt a dreadnought with marines in cc and shooting, with a wraithlord you cannot unless you add special weapons to the squad. This greatly reduces the squads efficency. I'm not complaining though, I play tau.

  11. #10
    Son of LO Tenozuma's Avatar
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    But marines in combat and shooting would be almost futile against a dreadnought so much that it hardly makes a difference that wraithlords can't be hurt by them.

    Nobody seems to mind that my wraithlord in toughness 8, nobody says its cheesy, but maybe that just because I'm alaitoc and hence don't have any falcons or wave serpents.
    Last edited by Tenozuma; October 11th, 2005 at 10:41.

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