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Hey guys, I havn't been on the Librarium for a while but I'd like to come back with a little analysis (yes, we will be doing math) on the XV8 weapon/equipment combos. Its mostly just fun for me since I get to be a math major with 40k.
You'll see that when it comes to marine downing, the TLPR/TA is slightly a better choice than the PR/MP/MT on a XV8 However, I'd still go with the later of the two because the Missile pod adds additional armour busting power and not all armies have 3+ saves. I'll start by showing you why.
At 24" we will look at the approximate number of wounds inflicted on Space Marines by the two different suit setups noted above. To start with the TLPR/TA suit, at 24" we get 1 shot with a 5/6 chance to wound and a 8/9 chance to hit with no armour save allowed. So this gives:
1*8/9*5/6 = 20/27 = .74 wounds
So a 3 man XV8 team with just this loadout will be expected to drop about 2.22 Marines a turn. Of course this is all averaged, and you can test it yourself if you roll the dice out many many times and see about how many Marines go down a turn.
Now, at 24" with the PR/MP/MT we get 1 at a 3/6 chance to hit and a 5/6 chance to wound with no save. As well, we get 2 shots with a 3/6 chance to hit, a 5/6 chance to wound, and a 2/6 chance that the Marine doesn't make his save. So our average number of wounds is:
1*3/6*5/6 + 2*3/6*5/6*2/6 = 25/36 = .69 wounds
Again, we'd expect a 3 man team like this to take out about 2.08 Marines a turn.
It is slightly less, meaning you have a less chance of taking out 3 Marines, but its still about the same. And the .05 wounds you lose gives you additional range, tank busting power, and other benefits.
But what about rapid fire range?
At 12" the TLPR guy gets 2 shots with the same stats, so his average wounding is 1.48
The PR/MP guy's average wounding is:
2*3/6*5/6 + 2*3/6*5/6*2/6 = 1.11
So at 12" the one with Twin-linked Plasma Rifles will do a good bit better. I've got a handy little chart to see their effectiveness at ranges above 24", between 24" and 12", and under 12"
But what if we are fighting an army where not everyone has a 3+ save? All of a sudden our Missile Pods become more useful since they get past armour too, so we use the same analysis:
Above 24" TLPR can't even hit. But PR/MP guy gets:
2*3/6*5/6 = .83 wounds
At 24" we get for them:
TLPR: 1*8/9*5/6 = .74 wounds
PR/MP: 1*3/6*5/6 + 2*3/6*5/6 = 1.25 wounds
A HUGE difference at such a range.
At 12" we have:
TLPR: 2*8/9*5/6 = 1.48 wounds
PR/MP: 2*3/6*5/6+2*3/6*5/6 = 1.66
So you can see why many stress the PR/MP/MT loadout above a few others. At close ranges it has less power but your suits are supposed to be far away anyways.
I'll leave with a quick analysis of the MP/PR/TA v.s. PR/FB/TA Shas'el and this will be v.s. Space Marines to start:
MP/PR: 2*5/6*5/6*2/6 = .46
MP/PR: 2*5/6*5/6*2/6 + 1*5/6*5/6 = 1.15
PR/FB: 1*5/6*5/6 = .69
MP/PR: 2*5/6*5/6*2/6 + 2*5/6*5/6 = 1.85
PR/FB: 2*5/6*5/6 + 1*5/6*5/6 = 2.08
And v.s. Non-Marines:
MP/PR: 2*5/6*5/6 = 1.38
MP/PR: 2*5/6*5/6 + 1*5/6*5/6 = 2.08
PR/FB: 2*5/6*5/6 = 1.38
MP/PR: 2*5/6*5/6 + 2*5/6*5/6 = 2.77
PR/FB: 2*5/6*5/6 + 1*5/6*5/6 = 2.08
And you notice the obvious themes emerging where you lose wounds to be able to specialize in killing a certain target.
Thanks and cya guys around.
There is the same amount of mathematics to deal when fighting terminators or things with 2+ saves or invulnerable saves. If anyone wants like a personal analysis or something, go ahead and message me with what unit is attacking what and I can tell you about how well it will turn out.
Last edited by PeekItUp; July 14th, 2007 at 07:06.
Nice math, nice over view of the Fireknife and TLPR.
I look at it from a much simpler perspective.
Twin linked Plasma Rifles with TA, might be great against marines, but look at all of the units in the Tau army that can kill marines through shooting.
Fire Warriors, Kroot, Stealth, Vespid, Gun Drones, XV8's, Ion head's, Railheads, XV88's, Sniper Drones, Pathfinders with rail rifles etc etc etc
The ability of the plasma rifle to kill Marines is great, but the versatility of the PR/MP is phenomenal, think of it more as a transport/light armour hunter that can also kill marines really well. Same goes for the Helios suit, this is a Tank/heavy armour killer that also kills Terminators and marines quite handily.
Anyway, nice post, welcome to the Tau LO forum.
I don't care what you say. I found a lightsaber in my garage and that makes me a Jedi
very nice post:yes:
do you mind doing the #'s of a plasma,CIB,TA,multi, shas el? (bs5) against both marines and non-MEQ?
" i once attempted to help an inquisitor who had stumbled over a cliff, but i couldn't help thinking no good was going to come of him yelling DIE HERITIC!!!"
I did the mathshammer for this before, but I'll do it again since I can't locate the post.
BS5 Shas'el "Centurion" PR, CIB, TA, HWMT
VS GEQ @18"
CIB 5 shots * 5/6 hits * 1/2 wounded = 2.083 dead GEQ(they get no saves VS CI
PR 1 shot *5/6 hits * 5/6 wounded = .69 dead GEQ
Total = 2.77 dead GEQ total.
Here we see that the Centurion kills 2-3 GEQ a turn on average. At 12" or less, double the numbers for the PR and the Centurion killas 3.46 or 3-4 GEQ a turn.
VS MEQ @18"
CIB 5 shots * 5/6 hits * 1/3 wounded = 1.388 wounded MEQ.
Since it takes a roll of a 5 or 6 to wound an MEQ, fully half of the 1.388 wounds will be AP1 from the CIB special rules so...
1.388*1/2 = .6944 dead from AP1 + .6944 * 1/3 = .9244 dead MEQ
PR 1 shot *5/6 hits * 5/6 wounded = .69 dead MEQ
Total = 1.614 dead MEQ total.
So we can expect the centurion to kill 1-2 marines a turn leaning more toward 2 @ >18" range. At 12" or less simply double the PR kills so the grand total becomes 2.304 MEQ kills.
VS TEQ @18"
CIB 5 shots * 5/6 hits * 1/3 wounded = 1.388 wounded TEQ.
Since it takes a roll of a 5 or 6 to wound an TEQ, fully half of the 1.388 wounds will be AP1 from the CIB special rules so half will have to save at the invulnerable 5+...
1.388*1/2 = .6944 * 2/3 from AP1 + .6944 * 1/6 regular saves = .578 dead TEQ
PR 1 shot *5/6 hits * 5/6 wounded *2/3(5+ inv save) = .4629 dead TEQ
Total = 1.04 dead TEQ total.
So we can expect the centurion to kill about 1 terminator a turn @ >18" range. At 12" or less simply double the PR kills so the grand total becomes 1.504 TEQ kills.
Now, these are interesting numbers to compare to the Helios, Fireknife, and Firestorm config suits. I'm not going to show all the math, but I will show the results for each of those as well. I'm only going to list range values when they change so some of the ranges will be incongruent with other suits charts.
So here are all the numbers in nice easy to read charts.
BS5 Centurion kills rates
_________24" range___________18" range_______________12" range
VS GEQ = .69 dead per turn_____2.77 dead per turn_________3.46 dead per turn
VS MEQ = .69 dead per turn_____1.614 dead per turn________2.304 dead per turn
VS TEQ = .463 dead per turn____1.04 dead per turn_________1.504 dead per turn
BS5 Fireknife kill rates
_________36" range_____________24" range__________12" range
VS GEQ = 1.38 dead per turn_____2.08 dead per turn____2.77 dead per turn
VS MEQ = .463 dead per turn_____1.16 dead per turn____1.85 dead per turn
VS TEQ = .231 dead per turn_____ .69 dead per turn_____1.15 dead per turn
BS5 Firestorm kill rates
_________36" range______________18" range
VS GEQ = 1.38 dead per turn______ 3.46 dead per turn
VS MEQ = .463 dead per turn_______1.02 dead per turn
VS TEQ = .231 dead per turn_______.51 dead per turn
BS5 Helios kill rates
_________24" range_____________12" range
VS GEQ = .69 dead per turn_______2.083 dead per turn
VS MEQ = .69 dead per turn_______2.083 dead per turn
VS TEQ = .463 dead per turn ______1.386 dead per turn
Data is not usefull unless we analyze it, so I'm going to rank them according to different categories. There are two variables these suits are being judged by, range and target type. But a quick survey of the numbers and various range effectiveness reveals some interesting facts about each of these setups.
At all ranges less than 18" the Centurion is almost always the king infantry smiter. It outperforms the other three in almost every category. The exception is GEQ vs Firestorm comparison. In this case, they tie at ranges less than 12" and the Firestorm actually outdoes it between 12"-18". But all other comparisons favor the Centurion at these ranges.
Whats more, those numbers reflect the average(mean) number of unsaved wounds. In terms of potential, a Centurion has the ability to far outdo it's averages since it starts with so many shots. I have seen it kill more than it's average share of troops in games before, and the first time it wiped a tac squad on it's own, it truly gained respect in my opponents eyes.
At ranges higher than 18" the Centurion's capability drops off sharply, completely ending at 24". Not terrible since the 6" in the movement phase gives the suit an effective operating zone of control of 24". Another thing the Centurion lacks is any kind of AV stopping power whatsoever. The CIB makes for a great versatile and powerful anti infantry weapon. But it does absolutely NOTHING to AV of any kind. Thus for this suit to hurt AV it has to rely exclusively on it's Plasma, and thats not good odds.
Ah the good old Fireknife. This suit is king at all ranges above 18". It does tie with the firestorm at ranges greater than 24" but none of the other 3 ever surpasses it at these ranges. At shorter ranges, the suit stays consistent but in various categories takes 2nd or 3rd in terms of effectiveness. For example, at ranges less than 12" both the Centurion and Helios outdo the Fireknife Vs. MEQ and TEQ. Against GEQ, the Centurion and the Firestorm outdo the fireknife at all ranges less than 18". But the fireknife is never last in anything even up close. Making it the long range puncher that can still stand up close in.
In terms of AV killing potential, the Fireknife has the Missile Pods and a Plasma rifle making it quite effective against lower AV values, especially at longer ranges. The Helios of course will still outdo the FK in AV hunting up close.
Now here is an interesting suit for sure. For those who are not familiar with this suit it is any Crisis suit with a BC, MP and MT. In this case a Shas'El, BC, MP, TA, HWMT - 85 points. The Firestorm is tied with the fireknife at all ranges greater than 24" due to it's missile pods. This gives it low to mid AV hunting power as well as long range and early involvement.
It is the best GEQ hunter at all ranges, only tying in this category once with the Centurion at ranges less than 12". Whats interesting is how many MEQ this suit can actually kill. At 18" this suit does nearly as well as the Fireknife vs MEQ. Only when 12" is hit and the PR rapid fires does this suit take a truly low backseat to the others. TEQ is of course much worse, but it still has a 50/50 cahnce to kill one every turn. Plus the Firestorm doesn't need to be so close(12").
What really makes this suit shine is when opponents use cover. Cover saves really hurt the numbers for the other suits when it comes to both MEQ and TEQ kill rates. The Firestorm rely's on dakka and not AP to do it's MEQ/TEQ damage, so when the opponent uses cover, the Firestorms will statistically outperform the other suits. On top of all that, this suit is supstantially cheaper than the others. Something to consider.
The worst config of the 3 in my opinion, the Helios makes for a poor infantry hunter. By having an effective range of only 12" the Helios will likely see little to no action much of the game. This is especially true when facing static shooty armies. Since it is actually outperformed by the Centurion vs all forms of infantry, the only time I can see needing these are against TEQ heavy, usually drop pod based, armies like deathwing or lysander armies. Even then, I'd much rather have a Centurion and some Fireknives, with FB toting Piranha backing them up.
Some will point to the ability to melta tanks, and insta kill T4 models. This is all well and good, but I don't want my IC getting with 6" of anything to melta it. I would say Piranha's are the better fusion users anyway since they have an AV value and can't be tied in CC.
I always take a Centurion. Agasint assaulty forward moving armies of all kinds, the Centurion really holds down the fort when those enemy forces inevitably get closer.
Fireknives are also great crisis fits as they are good all all ranges against most opponents.
Firestorms are an interesting option, being significatnly cheaper than fireknives, but just as good as FK's in many respects.
Helios are not a good Crisis config, as they have to bee too close to the enemy for comfort.
How can you use it as a weakness of the Helios yet consistently boast how amazing the fusion equipped Piranha is, when they have to deal with exactly the same situation (getting in to 6" range)
You say you do not want your IC getting within 6", good for you, you play safe, but many including myself do consistently put the IC helios within 6" and you know what it works, just dismissing something because YOU don't use it is giving a biased picture, in this case biased against and you cannot just dismiss the Helios's massive armour killing potential.
2+ to hit and STR8 plus 2D6 means damaged vehicle and often destroyed and it is a lot more certain of destroying a vehicle than a BS3 or 4 Piranha, plus its a hell of a lot more survivable.
Also the Helios is the top league Termie killer (you proved that yourself) but you also neglected to mention its STR also allows inst kills of characters up to and including STR4 something the CIB cannot do (and even firekifes only insta kill TGH3) which is a massive advantage and its effective against things like Wraithlords, hive tyrants, avatars etc that a CIB will be pretty much useless against (STR3 really rocks against TGH6).
Yet anotherpoint you neglect to mention is that the IC Helios can be close to the enemy because they hurt, with hits and wounds on most things at 2+ (3/4 if the toughness is higher) you can be sure that any thing it hits is damaged, intelligent use of the IC helios reaps wonderful rewards.
I for instance use a drone squad and Shas'El helios multi and this is probably the best transport/passenger killing unit in the game, automatic disembarkation with AP1 fusion means the passengers are easy targets for the gun drones and just one casualty means the unit is testing for pinning and more often than not entanglement as well. Works brilliantly (try that with a CIB and see how far you get).
If your going to do an evaluation of a suit fit, I have some advise 'do it right' do not just dismiss obvious strengths and benefits simply because you do not use the suit a certain way, not everyone plays the safe way or the same way and quoting a narrow range of statistics while leaving out a configs obvious strengths is not a good way to judge effectiveness.
Who cares if an XV8 is better at infantry killing, really who cares????, we have enough to do that for us, use Fire Warriors, Kroot, stealths, Submunnitions, Sniper drones, Gun drone squads, they are all better at it, use the XV8 for what we need it for mid strength, low AP weapons.
OK granted the CIB is better at killing grunts but heres the thing its only better than other XV8's against every other GEQ killer it pails.
So the question is why do you want an expensive Shas'El with PL, CIB TA and HW multi (100pts) to kill a whopping 3.46 GEQS a turn when a 120 pt FW squad at BS4 will kill 5.9 (oh and thats at 30" not 18") and at rapid fire range will kill 11.9 per turn and with markerlight help it just gets ridiculous (9 dead at BS5 with 12 shots)and thats just FW's?
Really I ask you what is the point of CIB equipped commanders, when fireknife or helios are much more useful suit fits.
Fire Warriors have the best basic infantry weapon in the game, with a fantastic long range and rapid fire abilities at close range. Kroot have a bolter equivalent weapon but can then assault and actually do some damage in CC. Gun Drones have the same range as a Centurian but can also cause pinning, especially against GEQ's which is the best use for Centurian's.
The Helios suit build is one of my favourite builds for a Shas'El. Despite the close range it is a highly survivable suit. The jump pack move combined with IC rules means that it is actually fairly easy to move this guy into position, he can't be fired at if screened by another unit (it doesn't have to drones, kroot, fw's.....anything that is close will do) and can do serious damage when it strikes. It excels at tank hunting, especially transports as opponents often want to drive up close to assault him anyway. The biggest benefit of this is that it frees up your railguns to target the Heavy tanks (landraiders, monoliths) or use submunition to kill just as many of those GEQ's that the centurian was going after.
Alrighty have a good one guys.
I don't care what you say. I found a lightsaber in my garage and that makes me a Jedi
One thing to note about using any kind of math is the fact that all these averages we are doing can be very skewed. For example:
Suppose you are allowed to choose 1 of 2 enemy units to fight against. Each unit has the same number of wounds and under all respects are equal. Suppose then each deals an AVERAGE of 2 wounds a turn. But, the first unit's attacks look like this:
2/6 chance to deal 0 wounds. 4/6 chance to deal 3 wounds.
And the second one is:
5/6 chance to deal 0 wounds. 1/6 chance to deal 12 wounds.
Which do you want to fight? The answer is the 1st one.
Say you've got 12 Fire Warriors to do the job. As well, say these Fire Warriors will kill the unit for certain if they can survive 4 turns. Or, they win the mission if any of them can survive 4 turns. Look:
The first enemy has a 19.7% chance of killing the Fire Warriors by turn 4.
The second enemy has a 38.5% chance of killing the Fire Warriors by turn 4.
See how it can be skewed?
The thing to make a note of whenever reading these analysis is that things can get very very skewed.
I sometimes quote math hammer mostly in response to others use of it, but I find it of no use in deciding whats going to make it into my list, baring the obvious things like whats got the best BS (what I call 'patently obvious math hammer) that have real perceivable telling effects, but deciding based on something like a 1.22223 hit rate compared to a 1.22224 hit rate strikes me as ridiculous.
Your plan of using drones may work for a moment, but anything with a jump pack will simply leap them and run your Helios down. Also they are not that resiliant, and any other unit can simply shoot down the drones thus removing your expensive HQ's IC status. It simply does not take a genius to realize that fighting at less than 12" with an expensive unit that sux in CC is a bad idea. Reason is simply that by getting to close you expose yourself to CC. Why then would you think it is a good idea in this case? All it would take to remove your Helios from play would be one squad of anything assaulting and locking it in CC for the rest of the game, or simply killing it. By moving close to the enemy you are giving them jsut that opportunity.
I guess I'm just trying to understand why you think having to close to 12" (or 6" for melta range) for you unit to be effective is a good idea when said unit can be locked/defeated easily in CC. I mean, I'll get Piranha that close, but they are nearly immune to CC and have an AV value which needs heavier weapons to damage. An IC status held by drones seems a flimsy defense at best, more of a tactic I might try as a "last ditch" effort after I've screwed up or been surprised. Actually using an expensive drone unit for this purpose seems like a nice waste of 96 poinst and an FA slot since they will be blasted to kingdom come the first time they are forced in the open to help maintain the Helios IC status. Then both units are pooched since the Helios is open to attack.
Look at the numbers again, it is not just the GEQ the Centurion excells at killing, it is MEQ and TEQ as well. Sure the Helios can kill armor, but why would you want to have to maneuvor it so close? Other units can do it at range(railguns, MP) or can get closer quicker with open field survivability(fusion piranha).
I just rolled 35 times testing the fusion blaster VS TEQ (4T, 2+/5+ inv) and the CIB vs TEQ as well.
Out of 35 times rolled for the fusion, it killed 17 TEQ, and 18 rounds it got the big nothing. For the CIB, it killed 20 TEQ in 35 rounds, but actually missed completely for 19 rounds of fire. there were 4 rounds where it killed 2 however, so that is how it still came out on top.
So yes, it appears the FUsion may be ever so slightly more consistent, but I think someone here made a program to do rolls for you and they found that the fusion is only slightly more reliable, while the CIB is simply capable of doing more damage. The fusions supposed better reliability is really not all it is cracked up to be, missing 18 times, to the CIB's 19. And that doesn't even account for the much better operating range of the CIB and ability to tackle GEQ more effectively. The CIB is the better weapon, that is why it is special issue.
Hang on, you make it sound like the CIB can kill TEQ's and MEQ's with stunning efficiency. From your results what I saw was that you kill 1.5 TEQ's and 2.3 MEQ's. To me that is not stunning efficiency.
Now take a squad of 12 FW's. Put them inside Rapid fire range (a little less than the range of the CIB, but not much especially if they are in a Devilfish), and now see what the results are for them.
TEQ = 1.33 (pretty close really isn't it) add one markerlight you get 1.77 (better than Centurian) add two markerlights you get 2.22
MEQ = 2.66, add a markerlight 3.55, add two 4.44
starting become embarassing isn't it.
To re-state a point you conveniently overlooked, the centurain does nothing that the entire rest of your army doesn't already do.
Also using Pirahna instead of the Helios suit is actually a little silly in my opinion.
A quick comparison goes like this.
75 points and 97 points.
12" for the Pirahna
12" and 24" for the Helios.
AV 11 front, less than that on the sides and rear. Turbo boost equals greater survival but can't shoot.
3+ save, multiple wounds, IC rules equal greater survival but he can't be shot at.
So you are putting a unit that is only 22 points less in the same "perilous" situation, but not a unit that has a higher BS, is more durable and can move after it shoots to at most 12" away. That 6" move is actually massive, it means all you have to do is get behind......anything (cover or any other unit you have) and he is basically untachable from shooting and CC. If you are playing him without any support I can see where this could be a problem, but with Tau every unit should really be supported by at least one other unit, so that shouldn't be an issue.
Now this whole idea of Pirahna being immune to bolter fire at their front armour to me doesn't mean squat. Look at the things you said the Pirahna would be going after.
Tanks (most tanks I know have weapons a little stronger than the average bolter)
MC's (Shooty Carnifex anyone)
Tough Characters (again, normally carry better than Bolter weapons)
you are sending an easy to kill unit to attack things equipped to kill it. If the Pirahna misses, which isn't that big a stretch at all, then it is in BIG trouble, far more trouble than a Helios suit would be. If you have a squadron of two, then you are now paying 150 points for what a Helios can do more effectively and safely IMO.
Your point there doens't make any sense to me. Plus if you add the cost of the Pirahna to the Centurian, you are now paying an extra 78 points. 78 points that could be spent on more FW's, Kroot, Gun drones or anything else that kills MEQ's and TEQ's just as well if not better than your Centurian.
Just telling it how I see it.
I don't care what you say. I found a lightsaber in my garage and that makes me a Jedi