Librarium Online Forums banner
1 - 20 of 81 Posts

·
Dawn Under Heaven
Joined
·
2,971 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Well over on Warseer there is supposedly an article detailing how GW dice roll 1s 32% of the time (and I say supposedly, because the site is a mess and I can't find it :p). Apparently a guy rolled a set of GW dice 10,000 times and found they rolled 1s 32% of the time.

Now, a local TO took this up as fact, and wanted non GW dice barred from the event so we'd all "suffer" the same effects.

I called bollocks.

So I tested this myself, and rolled a set of GW dice (5 red 5 black) 1000 times. Although it's not as much as the guy on Warseer, it's certainly more than even a horde player like myself is likely to roll over a 6 turn game. So I believe it's well enough to gain a large spread of results.

The full set of results (i.e. individual results for each set of rolls) can be downloaded from here.

dice.xls

For those too lazy, I'll post the final summary of results here.

The following is done with 10 GW dice, 5 red 5 black. 10 dice are rolled at a time. Results for 10 throws of the group (100 all up) was taken and a percentage was recorded. This was repeated 10 times, after which all the percentages were averaged to the result below, in descending order from 1-6

Average percent
17%
18%
17%
14%
17%
18%

In addition, the results for each side were tallied up and a pure percentage for the total was taken. Again results are in descending order from 1-6. They back up the averaged percentages quite convincingly.

Total results Percent
168 16.80%
177 17.70%
169 16.90%
141 14.10%
170 17.00%
175 17.50%

In some sets of 100 throws, I had swings of up to 25% for some numbers, but never did I ever find something as drastic as 32%, and in the end over 1000 rolls, these averaged themselves out anyway as you can see from the final set of results.

Testing other dice still remains to be done, but I think this throws enough doubt over the Warseer test to satisfy me for now.
 

·
Skeletor=Pimp.
Joined
·
996 Posts
Wow Tri my man, got some time on you're hands huh? :D

Interesting though, my GW dice seems fine most of the time. Which dice did he specify? GW has many, my preferred one's are the boltshot black one's.
 

·
Bearded Ninja
Joined
·
2,678 Posts
Only a poor player blames his dice. The rest of us blame/thank the dice gods.

Dice have no memory of previous rolls after all. Though they MAY equal the numbers if you rolled on for infinity we don't exactly have that time period.

I still await the day when a meet some fool who alters the dice rolls to fit the maths, because it’s what "should" happen.

To live by math hammer is to forsake the gods! REPENT REPENT! OH YE OF LITTLE FAITH! RETURN TO THE FOLD! SACRIFICE THE DICE ON THE DAY OF WARGAMING AND RECEIVE OUR LORDS BLESSING!
 

·
Consumate professional
Joined
·
2,863 Posts
Nice set of results, good to see that the law of averages is still up and running!

That reminds me...I may have to get a set of loaded dice in time for the LO meet MUWAHAHAH :p
 

·
Sparta!
Joined
·
1,438 Posts
Yeah, that seems like a lot of spare time, lol. Good job though. Interestingly I remember reading a report that rounded dice (like GW ones) aren't entirely accurate and to get a truly impartial result then the square edged casino type dice are the best.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,638 Posts
Just for fun, one might look up some Chaos Theory stuff, particularly a phenomenon known as Gambler's Ruin.

I like to think of it as a scientific reason to appease the Dice Gods.

And don't forget Pwyrm's Mathematical Theory of Dice Prayer:

"The intensity of your prayer to the Dice Gods should be inversely proportional to the number of dice thrown."
 

·
LO Zealot
Joined
·
1,744 Posts
What I have found in the times I have played is that when I needed to roll a good dice it was coming, though it was only for defense. In offense I could beat the 32% of 1's of the guy with my almost perfect 100% draw of 1's... :D Too funny to observe and too humiliating to live.

Now to your results. I read the results and I'm not a mathematical genious... I don't know though if it is mathematically correct to take the first ten draws and multiply it. If you think it maybe in the next 90 draws you get all 1's (that would be lucky!). I told beforehand that I'm not a mathematical genious! 0:
 
  • Like
Reactions: Zema

·
Always Fabulous
Joined
·
1,742 Posts
Just for fun, one might look up some Chaos Theory stuff, particularly a phenomenon known as Gambler's Ruin.

I like to think of it as a scientific reason to appease the Dice Gods.

And don't forget Pwyrm's Mathematical Theory of Dice Prayer:

"The intensity of your prayer to the Dice Gods should be inversely proportional to the number of dice thrown."
This man speaks the truth. Especially at the end. Also, I have to applaud Triumph for his mythbusting adventures. Time well spent.
 

·
Kut Maar Krachtig
Joined
·
4,014 Posts
Now to grow a goatie, get glasses and die your hair ginger and you could be on mythbusters!

Nice research ya did there, tri! R.E.P.!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Tsele

·
Dawn Under Heaven
Joined
·
2,971 Posts
Discussion Starter · #14 ·
If you'd actually download it and have a look at it you'll see there's a lot less than a 1000 numbers there :p. I've laid it out very neatly.

Not to mention I'm sure your average short story has a lot more than a thousand words in it. It seems like a big number but honestly it'll only take you all of ten minutes to have a look at.
 

·
Kut Maar Krachtig
Joined
·
4,014 Posts
If you'd actually download it and have a look at it you'll see there's a lot less than a 1000 numbers there :p. I've laid it out very neatly.

Not to mention I'm sure your average short story has a lot more than a thousand words in it. It seems like a big number but honestly it'll only take you all of ten minutes to have a look at.
I'd rather read a short story than 1000's of numbers :p. That's probably why the numberbased novels never took off ;)
 

·
Formerly BrotherAzriel
Joined
·
2,373 Posts
10001110010100010101011010110101.

erm, sorry, what i ment was,

nice myth busting, theres a fair few suspicions out there, like if you say "anything but a 1" then your going to get it!!

I find saying "ping" while rolling for armour saves works though!! lol.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,019 Posts
Now, a local TO took this up as fact, and wanted non GW dice barred from the event so we'd all "suffer" the same effects.
That is such an odd thing to demand that I hardly know what to say. If I was in a tourney and was told I couldn't play unless I was using GW dice I'd be baffled.

Models fair enough, but dice? Come on dude. If you have such little faith in your GW approved dice then shell out ten bucks for some "real" dice. Don't handicap everyone else.
 

·
Dawn Under Heaven
Joined
·
2,971 Posts
Discussion Starter · #20 ·
Now to your results. I read the results and I'm not a mathematical genious... I don't know though if it is mathematically correct to take the first ten draws and multiply it. If you think it maybe in the next 90 draws you get all 1's (that would be lucky!). I told beforehand that I'm not a mathematical genious! 0:
Nothing has been multiplied at all. Each set of 100 dice rolls (10 throws of 10 dice) is unique.
 
1 - 20 of 81 Posts
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top