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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Wondering what is the probability of passing LD5 with cold blooded (3 dice, take the two lowest).

LD5 on 2 dice is 27.8%. Anyone know the math formula to factor in a 3rd dice, but only taking the two lowest?
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 · (Edited)
Thanks for pointing that out! rep for you.

You wouldn't happen to know the math behind it would you?

Here's a quick comparison below - @LD5, going from 2D6 to 3D6 Coldblooded, the % chance to make the LD roll increases from 27.8% to 52.3%. Skinks are basically have a 50/50 shot to not panic which is a lot worse than LD6 in the previous edition of the book wihch was a 68.1% not to panic.

2D63D6Increase
Value% ≤% ≤%
2 2.8 7.4 4.6
3 8.3 19.9 11.6
4 16.7 35.6 19.0
5 27.8 52.3 24.5
6 41.7 68.1 26.4
7 58.3 80.6 22.2
8 72.2 89.4 17.1
9 83.3 94.9 11.6
10 91.7 98.1 6.5
11 97.2 99.5 2.3
12 100.0 100.0 -
 

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"3D6 keep the Lowest" is similar to "3D6 keep the highest". There's really no set formula for that, as 3D6 would be different from 4D6 or 5D6. It's one of those weird things about probability. Also, the math - written as a formula, is pretty long and not actually forum friendly (because Sigma-Algebra is ugly).
 

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Here is how I worked it out in a spreadsheet. The first row shows the columns in excel (column E is blank as a space saver btw).

In columns A,B,C you have to write down all the permutations of 3D6 which streatches to 216 rows of data. eg 1,2,3,4,5,6 copied and pasted below each other 36 times, then 111111,222222,333333 etc in column B, then 1(36 times), 2(36 times) etc repeating in column C.



A B C D E F G H
Red D6 Green D6 Blue D6 Total (ignoring highest)
1 1 1 =SUM(A2:C2)-MAX(A2:C2) Leadership Count Probability
2 1 1 =SUM(A3:C3)-MAX(A3:C3) 2 =COUNTIF($D$2:$D$217,F3) =SUM($G$3:G3)/216
3 1 1 =SUM(A4:C4)-MAX(A4:C4) 3 =COUNTIF($D$2:$D$217,F4) =SUM($G$3:G4)/216
4 1 1 =SUM(A5:C5)-MAX(A5:C5) 4 =COUNTIF($D$2:$D$217,F5) =SUM($G$3:G5)/216
5 1 1 =SUM(A6:C6)-MAX(A6:C6) 5 =COUNTIF($D$2:$D$217,F6) =SUM($G$3:G6)/216
6 1 1 =SUM(A7:C7)-MAX(A7:C7) 6 =COUNTIF($D$2:$D$217,F7) =SUM($G$3:G7)/216
1 2 1 =SUM(A8:C8)-MAX(A8:C8) 7 =COUNTIF($D$2:$D$217,F8) =SUM($G$3:G8)/216
2 2 1 =SUM(A9:C9)-MAX(A9:C9) 8 =COUNTIF($D$2:$D$217,F9) =SUM($G$3:G9)/216
3 2 1 =SUM(A10:C10)-MAX(A10:C10) 9 =COUNTIF($D$2:$D$217,F10) =SUM($G$3:G10)/216
4 2 1 =SUM(A11:C11)-MAX(A11:C11) 10 =COUNTIF($D$2:$D$217,F11) =SUM($G$3:G11)/216
5 2 1 =SUM(A12:C12)-MAX(A12:C12) 11 =COUNTIF($D$2:$D$217,F12) =SUM($G$3:G12)/216
6 2 1 =SUM(A13:C13)-MAX(A13:C13) 12 =COUNTIF($D$2:$D$217,F13) =SUM($G$3:G13)/216
1 3 1 =SUM(A14:C14)-MAX(A14:C14)


The results in column H give the same as in your table from the troll dice roller website.
 

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Well I tried to paste it in but the columns got shifted a little and those smileys crept in. Still I hope it makes sense.



This paste worked a little better.
 

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