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I Expect the Inquisition
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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
So, I've assimilated a bunch of rumors in my head and am looking at current trends in Codexography. I've got a few ideas I think that GW is at least play-testing. In the very least, I'd like to start them up as rumors (you never know B))

Warning, some of these idea ain't exactly new.

So we've heard that Guardsmen will probably cost 4-5 points each. Despite that, I pretty much expect that in order to keep Guard Armies playable, balanced and most importantly fitting on a 4'x6' table, they will find numerous point sinks for us:

First up HQ choices: I'm going to make a fearless prediction that HQs, across the board, are going up in points cost. GW is going back toward the days of Characterhammer and one way to do it is to give us unlockable abilities based on which HQs you want. Want Drop troops to count as Troops, rather than, say, Fast Attack? You need to buy a Deepstrike Specialist HQ. Just following the pattern of the Orks Codex shows all the possibilities.

Imagine something like: Colonel Reginald "Sky Pouncer" Skiesmith. 200 points with a command squad that has a melta, flamer, Power Sword, Some sort of homing device, etc [Allows a Drop Trooper Platoon to count as a Troops Choice]

Second Up: More expensive upgrades for skills: Things like Deep Striking, Iron Disc, Close Order Drill (which I seriously doubt will exist anymore), Infiltrate, Camo, will no longer be free/cheap. In the end, squads will end up costing similar to how they once did for similar items. Why to I say that?

Once upon a time, the "Forgeworld Default" Rhino (Smoke and Armor) was 58 points. Now they did drop the "base" cost by a fair amount, but then went ahead and upped the cost of the most popular upgrade. In the end, apples-to-apples dropped from 58 points to 50 points.

Third Up: Mobility Costs: Guard have a hard time competing for objectives that are across the table. Chimeras aren't exactly Land Raiders when it comes to survivability. There are really just three options left to us:
- Deep Strike, which is currently free, so will definitely go up in cost.
- Bring MORE Chimeras, which both sells models and dumps more points into transports.
- Valkyries, which the current rumors predict will solve all of our problems (if we can somehow get a Troops Unit into them). Therefore this option will cost a lot, be less effective than folks are hoping, or both.

Fourth, The Leman Russ: The Leman Russ will probably be more upgradable than before. This is probably my biggest WAG* so far but bear with me. Russes are harder to kill than before but can't move and shoot as well. So give folks an upgrade that will let them have something like a "Rolling Fortress" rule. So, the can keep the cost of a"base" russ the same, but just about every attractive upgrade will proably cost more.

Also, Extra Armor will triple in cost, as it has everywhere else.

That is all for now. I actually have another list of predictions to write, but this post is already so long most folks won't read it :excruciating:




* WAG = Wild Assed Guess
 

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Let's see that other list, from what i see your predictions seem right on.
 

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Hellhounds are good tanks
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.......um no, if you make upgrades that expensive then guard players just won't use them(for example carapace armor costs too much, no one uses it unless its a fluff based army) and guard players will crowd the deployment zone due to taking more guardsmen.

Up the price of the HQ??!!! are you crazy??!!! our hq already costs more than a inquisitor or a grey knight terminator!!!! if they did that, I would give my hq nothing!!! and just squeeze in as many guardsmen as humanly possible, rather than wasting points on upgrades I'd rather take so many gaurdsmen that he cannot possibly beat me in objective missions(although in kill points I'd be beat.......but what guard army isn't?)

I could picture them making deepstrike 2 points per model or something like that....yea they might do that.

just so you know, if they up the cost of vehicle upgrades, then they would be stupid, if they did that then guard players just wouldn't take upgrades, they would just take more of that vehicle.(personally the only upgrade I ever give my vehicles is heavy stubbers, if you stun one, then there is at least 4 other tanks that can shoot at you, and there is so many infantry that in objective games, you have no chance!!(unless its guard or orks or tyranids lol)
 

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I predict that Mars will have an employee pricing sale and the cost of a Leman Russ will go to buy one get one free. Acting quickly will get you bumper to barrel warrenty coverage (5yr/150,000 mile) and the first tank of gas free.
 

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I Expect the Inquisition
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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
.......um no, if you make upgrades that expensive then Guard players just wont use them(for example carapace armor costs too much, no one uses it unless its a fluff based army) and guard players will crowd the deployment zone due to taking more guardsmen.
Note: I'm not arguing for these ideas, I'm discussing what "They" might do based on past actions and future rumors. Guard Players already have a plethora of options they don't use, enabling them to squeeze more men in. What I am saying is that there will be a balance to the reduced cost of the base Guardsman. I will argue that Guard armies already have a high-enough model count to make them unwieldy for the beginning 40k player. Since no army in 40k is supposed to have a higher barrier to entry than any other, the balance will come from upgrades, HQs, etc.

To your point, GW may gleefully shout that we still have the "option" to run 100+ men in a 1000 point army, but the competitiveness of said army will be suspect (For your reference, see any discussion involving an Emperors Children army).

Up the price of the HQ??!!! are you crazy??!!! our hq already costs more than a inquisitor or a grey knight terminator!!!!
I am Reckless, not Crazy, thank you very much. :sarcastic:

For 75 points we get an LD9 (Iron Discipline) bubble with 7 wounds across 5 models (86 points if you also want to reroll LD tests). An inquisitor isn't playable at that cost, and a GK Termie is a totally different animal.

But none of that addresses my point. If a player wants to drop Troops (Capital "T") onto an objective, they would have to pay the points, just like Orks have to take a Warboss for Nobz (And even crazy Ork players don't take base Warbosses just to get Nobz as Troops)

if they did that, I would give my hq nothing!!! and just squeeze in as many guardsmen as humanly possible, rather than wasting points on upgrades I'd rather take so many gaurdsmen that he cannot possibly beat me in objective missions(although in kill points I'd be beat.......but what guard army isn't?)
Your argument seems to be running on the premise that I said they'd bump the HQ to up in price and give us nothing for it. If you want to build an army that is about as effective as running 300 Gretchen, then they might very well give us the option. Orks have a 35 point Naked HQ. Will anyone take it? Maybe. Take it twice? Probably not.

Please don't let the my example throw you too much. I just rounded off to 200. I'm not saying every HQ will be 200.

I could picture them making deepstrike 2 points per model or something like that....yea they might do that.
That is 20 points/squad. Even I say ouch to that. But compared to buying a pile of drop pods... Well, know knows.

just so you know, if they up the cost of vehicle upgrades, then they would be stupid, if they did that then guard players just wouldn't take upgrades, they would just take more of that vehicle.(personally the only upgrade I ever give my vehicles is heavy stubbers, if you stun one, then there is at least 4 other tanks that can shoot at you,
I'm discussing the trends here. You are arguing against exactly what they have already done in the last few Codexes. Chims, however, without a doubt, be cheaper. However only by 20 points comparing the Default build (Extra Armor) apples to apples.

See the future of the Chimera here on page 11.

I will also strongly argue that most folks will take Extra Armor because a stunned Chim blocks other Chims from getting to the objective. And the points differential will NOT buy you another Chim with the saves points.

and there is so many infantry that in objective games, you have no chance!!(unless its guard or orks or tyranids lol)
Putting a ton of base Guardsmen onto an objective is not playing to win. It is playing to Tie. It only takes one Terminator, skimmer, etc to contest an objective. This assumes your LD7 dudes won't break.

I predict that Mars will have an employee pricing sale and the cost of a Leman Russ will go to buy one get one free. Acting quickly will get you bumper to barrel warrenty coverage (5yr/150,000 mile) and the first tank of gas free.
Is that 5 years relative to Terran Standard or Mars?
 

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I Expect the Inquisition
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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
I either wrote too much in my first post or folks REALLY agree with me.

Maybe I should have peppered it with exclamation points and rude statments, that always gets debates rolling around here :sinister:

Lemme try... eh-hem.... "YOU ARE ALL CLUELESS NOOBS! YOU KNOW I AM TOTALLY RIGHT!"
 

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No no see, you have to be more subtle... Caps and exclamation points are for teenage boys pretending to be girls on IRC.
 

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First up HQ choices: I'm going to make a fearless prediction that HQs, across the board, are going up in points cost. GW is going back toward the days of Characterhammer and one way to do it is to give us unlockable abilities based on which HQs you want. Want Drop troops to count as Troops, rather than, say, Fast Attack? You need to buy a Deepstrike Specialist HQ. Just following the pattern of the Orks Codex shows all the possibilities.

Imagine something like: Colonel Reginald "Sky Pouncer" Skiesmith. 200 points with a command squad that has a melta, flamer, Power Sword, Some sort of homing device, etc [Allows a Drop Trooper Platoon to count as a Troops Choice]
After seeing what they've done with the SM codex and the Orc codex (and even to an extent, the Tau codex), I'm going to say that I wholly agree with this one (that's not to say I don't also agree with the others, this one just struck me as being dead on). I'm hoping there's a Major Grant "Grenadier Fiend" Nadeington so I can still run all my Grenadiers :).

We already know that there's some other HQ choices in the pipe; that's good news to me, because a single, standard, non-character HQ choice just left me a little sad. In an army that was all about choice and customization, there was always that one HQ choice you had to take.

Fourth, The Leman Russ: The Leman Russ will probably be more upgradable than before. This is probably my biggest WAG* so far but bear with me. Russes are harder to kill than before but can't move and shoot as well. So give folks an upgrade that will let them have something like a "Rolling Fortress" rule. So, the can keep the cost of a"base" russ the same, but just about every attractive upgrade will proably cost more.

Also, Extra Armor will triple in cost, as it has everywhere else.
Regarding the Russ, I think there's probably a lot of people out there (like me, for example) that cried a little when all my heavy bolter sponsons became pointless in 5th ed. I really like the idea of being able to have some kit that allows movement and firing as per 4th ed rules. Sure, make it cost some points, but with all the already modeled and painted Russes I have with HB sponsons, I'd take it. It's not like there isn't a precident for "rule bending" wargear. Tau can take gear that allows them to target indepently from the rest of the unit, another that allows them to fire two of their weapons, etc. The "Machine Spirit" allows SM Land Raiders to snap off an extra shot, regardless of their disposition (stunned, cruising, etc). I'm hoping, that since Russes are the iconic tank of the imperial guard (just as the Land Raider is for SMs) that we'll get the ability to increase it's lethality.

In addition, I believe I've read rumors on BoLS about the new Russ kit having all kinds of upgrades on it, including the ability to create different Russ flavors (I'd venture a guess that we'd see things like Exterminators, Annihilators, etc on the sprue). Since really the only thing that differentiates these from the Russ is the main gun, then it's possible that the Russ upgrades will include the main gun, and the base cost will be lowered as you're going to pay for that gun (much like the Chimera right now is priced w/o the turret gun, but you have to chose one of the options).
 

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I Expect the Inquisition
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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
Aye, that makes sense.

They'll either go with Battlecannon (free), Demolisher +15, Conqueror +10 etc..
or
Battlecannon +80, Demo + 95, etc...

It all depends on what flavor beer they are drinking at the time. I think the prevailing currents will lead to the first option.

All I know is, my sponsons and heavy stubbers are all on probation until the new Dex drops. I'd already have popped them off all my armor if it wasn't for the faint hope we'll actually see the rolling fortress rule.
 
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